It won't be raining all the time and there will be a lot of moments this weekend when the weather is very nice. But there is a chance for some decent rain over the next few days. Let's break it down.
Active Weather Pattern Ahead
May 2, 2025
By Jay Faught
Friday: A Surge of Moisture and a Chance for Thunder
Early this morning, a backdoor cold front pushed into central New Mexico, sneaking through mountain passes and leaving behind a pool of cooler air and added moisture. For Santa Fe, this front will set the stage for a stormy afternoon. Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire along the mountains and gradually drift toward the city by late afternoon and early evening. These storms could bring:
Gusty winds
Brief heavy rain
Small hail
Lightning
While not everyone will see a downpour, if you’re planning outdoor activities late today, be ready for sudden changes. By late evening, things should begin to quiet down.
Saturday: A Repeat Performance, With a Twist
Low-level moisture will hang around into Saturday, and the atmosphere won’t get a chance to dry out before the next round of instability arrives. Expect another afternoon and evening of scattered thunderstorms, especially over the high terrain surrounding Santa Fe. The storms will likely move a little faster than Friday’s, which may help reduce the threat of localized flooding, especially near burn scar areas.
Again, Santa Fe sits in a favorable zone for storm development, so keep those umbrellas handy — and maybe hold off on any major hiking plans in the foothills until conditions settle.
Sunday: A More Serious Setup?
Sunday could bring a more organized — and potentially more intense — weather situation across the state. A strong upper-level low is expected to slide through Arizona, setting up a “multi-hazard day” for New Mexico. In Santa Fe and the Sangre de Cristo foothills, there’s a chance for:
Stronger thunderstorms
Gusty outflow winds (30–40 mph)
Small hail
Brief heavy rainfall
Some of these storms could turn severe mainly east of Santa Fe, especially if the atmosphere destabilizes as expected. Areas east of Santa Fe will have the greatest risk, but residents in town should still stay weather-aware. Storms could organize along the east slopes of the mountains and push west into the city.
Into Next Week: Cooler Than Average and Unsettled
Heading into next week, forecasting becomes trickier. There’s some disagreement among the models on how long the upper low will linger and whether a “Rex Block” (a weather pattern that traps systems in place) will develop over the region. What we do know is:
Temperatures will stay cool
— generally 5 to 15 degrees below average. That means highs in the 60s around Santa Fe.
Afternoon storm chances may persist, especially on the east side of the state.
High-elevation snow is possible
early in the week for peaks above 10,000 feet, though Santa Fe proper will remain too warm for snow.
If the low continues to meander nearby, expect continued storm chances — but the exact timing and location will depend on how the system evolves.
Bottom Line for Santa Fe:
Friday & Saturday:
Expect afternoon storms; keep an eye on the sky and take shelter if thunder roars.
Sunday:
A chance for stronger storms — possibly severe east of Santa Fe. Stay tuned for updates.
Next Week:
Unseasonably cool with continued storm chances, especially in the afternoons.
Santa Fe Weather
Updated Storm Track for Weekend Storm November 14, 2025 By Jay Faught The storm system we’ve been watching all week has shifted—but this time, it’s slowing down and taking a more northerly route. That updated path dramatically changes the weekend forecast for Santa Fe and northern New Mexico. A Slower, More Northern Storm Track Earlier projections had the storm sweeping into New Mexico sooner, with a more organized band of moisture. But the latest data shows the system digging more slowly along the West Coast and pushing a bit farther north than originally expected. That shift means Southern California will now take the brunt of the storm, with periods of heavy rain and even flooding concerns in some areas. For us in Santa Fe, however, the impacts will be much more limited. Santa Fe’s Updated Forecast: Light and Late Instead of showers developing Saturday or early Sunday, the latest timing suggests isolated light rain showers won’t arrive until Sunday night. The moisture feed simply doesn’t extend far enough south to bring widespread precipitation to our area. Here’s what that means for your weekend plans: Most of the weekend stays dry—great news if you're planning outdoor activities around town or on the trails. Isolated showers Sunday night may bring brief dampness but nothing widespread or soaking. Snow Levels: Staying High There will be just enough moisture and lift Sunday night into early Monday for a few flakes in the higher terrain: Light snow is possible above 9,000 feet, mainly over the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Accumulations look minimal, and ski areas won’t see major impacts, though the first hints of winter are always exciting. Valleys, including Santa Fe, will stay warm enough for just light rain if anything at all. Bottom Line While this storm is impressive for the West Coast, its slower and more northern track means Santa Fe will see only minor impacts—mostly a few isolated showers Sunday night and perhaps a dusting of snow high in the mountains. A bigger takeaway: this pattern shift still hints at an active atmosphere as we move deeper into November. It’s a good reminder that our storm season is just getting started.
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