Detailed Discussion

Wednesday, February 11

Will the Next Storm Bring Rain or Snow?

All eyes are on the next storm system that will bring widespread rain and mountain snow to New Mexico.  Two lows in the Pacific will spin off some energy and bring more clouds for our area on Wednesday and Thursday.  There is a slight chance for some isolated showers, mainly in the mountains and in areas west of Santa Fe on Wednesday and Thursday. 

It won't be until Friday afternoon when the widespread moisture will arrive.  It looks like Santa Fe will mainly see rain, but there could be some snow overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

Snow Levels Stay Mostly Above Santa Fe—At First

Early in the storm, snow levels are expected to be around 8,000 to 9,000 feet. Since Santa Fe sits near 7,000 feet, this means:

• Rain will be the dominant precipitation type in town on Friday
• Snow will be confined mainly to the surrounding mountains

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains and higher elevations near Ski Santa Fe will see accumulating snow, with difficult travel likely Friday evening into early Saturday. Mountain passes and high-elevation roads could become slick and hazardous during that time.

Friday night, colder air moves in aloft, lowering snow levels closer to 7,000 feet. This puts Santa Fe right near the rain–snow line. While most of the city is still expected to remain mainly rain, a brief mix or wet snow cannot be ruled out late Friday night or early Saturday, especially on the north and east sides of town and in higher neighborhoods.  Los Alamos will likely see a light accumulation of an inch or less.

Limited Impacts in Town, Bigger Impacts in the Mountains

At this time, the storm does not appear particularly strong. Forecasters expect:

• Light to moderate rainfall in Santa Fe
• Minimal snow accumulation in the city
• More significant snow in the mountains

Winter Weather Advisories are likely for higher terrain, while major impacts in town remain unlikely. Still, wet roads, reduced visibility, and chilly temperatures could make for slower travel Friday night and Saturday morning.

Quick Improvement This Weekend

The storm moves out quickly on Saturday, with improving conditions during the day. Sunshine should return by Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds in behind the system.

By Sunday, temperatures are expected to climb back above average, bringing a return to pleasant late-winter weather across Santa Fe and northern New Mexico.

Looking Ahead: Windier and Potentially Stormier Next Week

Early to mid next week looks more uncertain—but potentially more impactful.

A strengthening jet stream is expected to move into the Southwest, setting the stage for:

• Increasing winds across northern New Mexico
• Periods of unsettled weather
• Possible additional mountain snow

If enough Pacific moisture lines up with colder air, some winter impacts could return to higher elevations. Details are still developing, but confidence is growing that next week will be windier and more active than what we’ve seen recently.