A rare combination of tropical moisture, stalled thunderstorms, and rugged Hill Country terrain created the perfect setup for catastrophe. I broke down the weather ingredients that led to this deadly flash flood.
The Perfect Storm: What Caused the Deadly Flooding in Texas Hill Country
July 6, 2025
By Jay Faught
1. Remnants of Tropical Storm Barry
Late on July 3, the decaying mid-level circulation of Atlantic Tropical Storm Barry, enriched by tropical moisture, moved into Texas and merged into a broader upper‑level trough. Soon after, intense thunderstorms developed and rapidly turned into a large mesoscale convective complex, unleashing torrential rainfall across the Hill Country.
2. Exceptional Atmospheric Moisture
Multiple moisture sources fed the storm:
- Warm Gulf of Mexico waters elevated evaporative potential.
- Additional moisture streaming westward from the eastern Pacific.
- Pre-existing dry soils (due to drought) meant nearly all rainfall turned into runoff rather than soaking in
3. Stalled, Slow-Moving Thunderstorms (“Training”)
Rather than moving on quickly, the storms stalled over the same areas, dropping band after band of rain in what meteorologists call “training thunderstorms.” This happened because a stagnant upper‑level pattern left no jet-stream steering to push storms away
4. Extreme Rainfall Rates
Rain totals far exceeded forecasts: in just a few hours, 5–11 inches of rain fell over south‑central Kerr County, with radar‑indicated maxima approaching 15 inches—and in isolated pockets up to 20 inches. That translates to over 120 billion gallons of rain landing over the region nearly instantaneously.
Terrain and Hydrology: Nature’s Amplifiers
Hill Country Topography
Kerr County sits in Texas’s Hill Country, featuring steep, rocky hills, narrow valleys, and shallow limestone or granite soils that resist water absorption. When heavy rain hits, gravity rapidly funnels water into creeks and rivers with little to no infiltration—like pouring over concrete.
Fast-Rising Guadalupe River
The Guadalupe River Basin received almost all the runoff. At Hunt, gauges showed a 22‑foot rise in 2 hours, failing when it hit 29 feet. Downstream in Kerrville, levels rose 21 feet; in Comfort, the river surged nearly 29.9 feet, eclipsing historic flood levels from 1987.
The Perfect Storm
Forecast Limitations
NWS had issued Flood Watches and eventually Flash Flood Emergencies. But models typically struggle to predict extremes in locations and magnitudes for mesoscale systems like these. It’s especially hard to forecast where training bands will settle—just a few miles can turn minor to catastrophic flooding.
Timing and Awareness
The flash flood emergency came in the early pre-dawn hours, when most people—campers, tourists, residents—were asleep. Combined with limited sounding warnings in Kerr County, many were caught completely off guard.
Santa Fe Weather
If you’ve lived in Santa Fe for any length of time, you’ve probably seen what looks like streaks of rain falling from clouds — but then you notice the ground stays bone dry. That phenomenon is called virga, and it’s a regular part of our weather here in northern New Mexico.
With it being so hot out this week, I can't think of a better time to talk about a winter snowfall forecast.
I dove into the data to find out if the frequency of tornadoes are actually increasing in Santa Fe County.
Santa Fe may not be a sprawling metropolis, but its unique topography gives it a surprising range of microclimates.
If you've been in Santa Fe for any period of time, you've already encountered the summer monsoon. But do you know what it really is and how much we depend on it?
On a personal note for this Father’s Day, I want to take a moment to recognize and honor my late father, Wendell Faught (1929–1998).
Your safety comes first, and I want to be sure you know where to turn during severe weather.
A dust devil is a small, rotating column of air that picks up dust, sand, and debris as it spins across the ground.
Santa Fe’s skies have long held fascination and importance for its residents—from farmers planning their planting season to tourists hoping for sunny strolls down Canyon Road. But where did Santa Fe’s weather records begin, and how have the official observations changed over time?
May is often one of our drier months in Santa Fe, so what is causing us to have several days of rain? It's called the Omega Block.