If you've been in Santa Fe for any period of time, you've already encountered the summer monsoon. But do you know what it really is and how much we depend on it?
Understanding the Southwest Monsoon: What it Means for Santa Fe
June 18, 2025
By Jay Faught
When the summer months arrive in the Southwest, residents across New Mexico—and especially here in Santa Fe—start to anticipate the arrival of a familiar and vital seasonal shift: the Southwest Monsoon. Also known as the North American Monsoon, this annual weather pattern brings much-needed rainfall to our typically dry landscape and is essential for replenishing water sources, nourishing vegetation, and providing some relief from the summer heat.
What Is the Southwest Monsoon?
The Southwest Monsoon is a seasonal wind and moisture pattern that develops each summer, primarily affecting the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. It’s marked by a dramatic increase in thunderstorm activity, higher humidity, and a noticeable shift in wind patterns that draw moisture into the region from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of California, and sometimes the Gulf of Mexico.
Unlike the monsoons in India or Southeast Asia that bring weeks of steady, soaking rains, the Southwest Monsoon produces scattered, often intense thunderstorms that can develop quickly and bring heavy downpours, lightning, strong winds, hail, and even flash flooding—sometimes all in one afternoon.
When Does the Monsoon Occur?
The monsoon season typically begins in late June or early July and lasts through early September. In Santa Fe, we usually see our first true monsoon storms by the first or second week of July, with activity peaking in late July and early August. By mid-September, the pattern typically weakens and drier air returns.
However, the timing can vary each year depending on broader weather patterns like El Niño or La Niña, sea surface temperatures, and even lingering spring weather systems that delay the onset of the high-pressure ridge needed for monsoon flow.
How the Monsoon Forms
The Southwest Monsoon is driven by changes in atmospheric pressure and temperature as summer heat builds across the region. Here's how it works:
- Heating of the land – As the sun beats down on the Southwest, the land heats up quickly, especially in desert areas. This creates a large area of low pressure over the interior Southwest.
- Shift in wind patterns – At the same time, a high-pressure system—often centered over the Four Corners region—begins to form in the upper atmosphere. This “monsoon ridge” helps steer moist air from the Pacific and Gulf regions northward.
- Moisture influx – As moisture-laden air moves into the Southwest, the intense surface heating causes the air to rise rapidly, creating towering cumulus clouds. This often leads to afternoon and evening thunderstorms that pop up with little warning.
- Local terrain effects – In Santa Fe and other mountainous areas, the landscape enhances this pattern. Mountains act as natural triggers, forcing moist air upslope and helping fuel stronger storm development.
The Monsoon in Santa Fe
In Santa Fe, the monsoon brings some of our most active and dramatic weather of the year. Our elevation and terrain play a big role in shaping local thunderstorm development. While storms can be hit or miss, the rain they provide is vital for reducing wildfire risk, replenishing soil moisture, and supporting gardens, trees, and wildlife that rely on summer rains.
That said, monsoon season also brings hazards. Flash flooding can occur quickly, especially in arroyos and low-lying areas. Lightning is frequent and can spark new wildfires or cause power outages. It’s important to stay weather-aware and take storm warnings seriously, especially during the peak of the season.
Looking Ahead
The strength and timing of each year’s monsoon can vary significantly. Some years, Santa Fe sees generous rainfall and lush, green landscapes. Other years, the monsoon may fail to deliver, leaving behind drought conditions and stressed vegetation.
But whether it’s a blockbuster monsoon season or a more modest one, this unique weather phenomenon is a defining feature of summer in the Southwest—and a vital lifeline for our high-desert home.
Stay Informed:
For localized updates on monsoon activity and daily weather forecasts tailored to Santa Fe, be sure to follow the Santa Fe Weather Facebook Group, where I post regular updates, storm outlooks, and helpful insights into what’s happening in our skies.
Santa Fe Weather
Why Has It Been So Warm in Santa Fe - and Will it Last? If you’ve been enjoying the mild afternoons lately, you’re not imagining things. Santa Fe has been running unseasonably warm for much of December, with daytime highs frequently climbing well above normal and very little in the way of cold air or snow. It’s a pattern that has raised plenty of questions — especially with Christmas just around the corner. So what’s going on, and should we expect a change anytime soon? A Classic La Niña Pattern The warmth we’re experiencing is very typical of a La Niña winter, particularly early in the season. During La Niña, cooler-than-normal waters in the equatorial Pacific tend to shift the jet stream farther north. For New Mexico, that often means: Fewer storms tracking through the Southwest More frequent ridging (high pressure) over the region Warmer daytime temperatures Longer dry stretches between storms In Santa Fe, La Niña winters often start slow, especially when it comes to snowfall. Cold air struggles to push this far south, and storm systems that might normally bring snow either weaken or pass well to our north. Will This Warm Pattern Last Through Christmas? This is the question I’m hearing most right now — and based on current data, yes, the pattern looks likely to hold through Christmas and probably through the end of the year. Forecast models continue to show persistent high pressure nearby, limited storm activity, and temperatures staying above normal for late December. That doesn’t mean we can’t sneak in a brief cool-down or a weak system, but at this point it does mean there’s no clear signal for a sustained cold or snowy pattern before the calendar flips to January. In other words, if you’re hoping for a white Christmas in Santa Fe, the odds aren’t looking great this year. Mild afternoons, chilly nights, and generally dry conditions remain the most likely outcome through the holiday period. Does That Mean the Rest of Winter Is a Bust? Not necessarily — and this is where things get more interesting. While La Niña is currently influencing our weather, longer-range climate guidance continues to suggest that this event may weaken as we move deeper into winter. Several climate models are still pointing toward a transition out of La Niña and into an ENSO-neutral pattern later in the season. That matters because ENSO-neutral winters can open the door to a very different setup for New Mexico. What Happens If We Shift to ENSO Neutral? If La Niña fades and we move into neutral conditions, the jet stream often becomes more variable and less locked into one position. For Santa Fe, that can mean: More frequent storm systems reaching the Southwest Better opportunities for colder air to move south An increased chance for snow-producing systems More active weather during the second half of winter Historically, some of our better snow seasons in northern New Mexico have featured slow starts followed by a more active late winter. February and even early March can end up doing a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to seasonal snowfall totals. The Bottom Line The recent warmth is not unusual for a La Niña winter, especially in December Current trends suggest mild and mostly dry weather through Christmas and the end of the year There are credible signs that La Niña may weaken later this winter If we transition to ENSO-neutral conditions, colder and potentially snowier weather could arrive during the second half of winter So while it may feel more like fall or spring than winter right now, winter isn’t over by a long shot (technically, it hasn't even started). Santa Fe winters have a habit of saving some surprises for later — and I’ll be watching closely to see if that late-season pattern shift begins to show up in the weeks ahead. Stay tuned.
Updated Storm Track for Weekend Storm November 14, 2025 By Jay Faught The storm system we’ve been watching all week has shifted—but this time, it’s slowing down and taking a more northerly route. That updated path dramatically changes the weekend forecast for Santa Fe and northern New Mexico. A Slower, More Northern Storm Track Earlier projections had the storm sweeping into New Mexico sooner, with a more organized band of moisture. But the latest data shows the system digging more slowly along the West Coast and pushing a bit farther north than originally expected. That shift means Southern California will now take the brunt of the storm, with periods of heavy rain and even flooding concerns in some areas. For us in Santa Fe, however, the impacts will be much more limited. Santa Fe’s Updated Forecast: Light and Late Instead of showers developing Saturday or early Sunday, the latest timing suggests isolated light rain showers won’t arrive until Sunday night. The moisture feed simply doesn’t extend far enough south to bring widespread precipitation to our area. Here’s what that means for your weekend plans: Most of the weekend stays dry—great news if you're planning outdoor activities around town or on the trails. Isolated showers Sunday night may bring brief dampness but nothing widespread or soaking. Snow Levels: Staying High There will be just enough moisture and lift Sunday night into early Monday for a few flakes in the higher terrain: Light snow is possible above 9,000 feet, mainly over the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Accumulations look minimal, and ski areas won’t see major impacts, though the first hints of winter are always exciting. Valleys, including Santa Fe, will stay warm enough for just light rain if anything at all. Bottom Line While this storm is impressive for the West Coast, its slower and more northern track means Santa Fe will see only minor impacts—mostly a few isolated showers Sunday night and perhaps a dusting of snow high in the mountains. A bigger takeaway: this pattern shift still hints at an active atmosphere as we move deeper into November. It’s a good reminder that our storm season is just getting started.
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