With it being so hot out this week, I can't think of a better time to talk about a winter snowfall forecast.
Winter Snowfall Forecast (2025-2026)
August 5, 2025
By Jay Faught
Winter Snowfall Forecast for Los Alamos (and What It Means for Santa Fe)
When it comes to predicting snowfall for northern New Mexico, reliable historical data is essential. Unfortunately, Santa Fe’s snowfall records are patchy and inconsistent over the years, which makes it difficult to use them as a solid forecasting base. That’s why I turned to Los Alamos—just 30 miles away and about 1,000 feet higher—for my winter snowfall analysis.
Los Alamos benefits from decades of well-kept snowfall records and sits in a location where winter weather patterns are often a good proxy for Santa Fe’s trends. While Los Alamos typically receives more snow due to its elevation—an annual average of 42.2 inches compared to Santa Fe’s 22 inches—both communities are influenced by the same large-scale weather patterns.
Looking at the Numbers
I examined Los Alamos snowfall data going back more than 70 years, categorized by ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral). The upcoming winter is forecast to be a very weak La Niña or ENSO-neutral, meaning the Pacific Ocean will not be strongly tilted toward warm (El Niño) or cool (La Niña) conditions.
Historically, Neutral winters in Los Alamos average 51.2 inches of snow—about 9 inches above the long-term normal. If the same pattern holds, Los Alamos could be in for a near-normal to slightly above-normal snow season, likely landing somewhere between 45 and 55 inches by spring.
What This Means for Santa Fe
Because Santa Fe sits lower in elevation, it normally receives about half as much snow as Los Alamos. While the raw snowfall totals won’t match, the trend will. If Los Alamos sees near-normal or slightly above-normal snow this winter, Santa Fe should experience the same relative outcome. That means residents can expect around 20–23 inches of snow for the season, which is close to the city’s long-term average of 22 inches.
Factors That Could Shift the Forecast
While ENSO is a major driver of winter precipitation patterns, it’s not the only one. Other climate signals—like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and random atmospheric patterns—can swing snowfall totals significantly in either direction. Temperature trends will also matter, since warmer storms can produce more rain than snow even in the winter months.
Final Word
Based on historical trends for Neutral ENSO winters, Los Alamos is likely looking at a snow season in the near-normal to slightly above-normal range. For Santa Fe, that means around 20–23 inches of snow by spring.
So keep your snow shovels handy, but don’t expect a record-breaking year—this winter should feel pretty typical for northern New Mexico.
Santa Fe Weather
I dove into the data to find out if the frequency of tornadoes are actually increasing in Santa Fe County.
Santa Fe may not be a sprawling metropolis, but its unique topography gives it a surprising range of microclimates.
A rare combination of tropical moisture, stalled thunderstorms, and rugged Hill Country terrain created the perfect setup for catastrophe. I broke down the weather ingredients that led to this deadly flash flood.
If you've been in Santa Fe for any period of time, you've already encountered the summer monsoon. But do you know what it really is and how much we depend on it?
On a personal note for this Father’s Day, I want to take a moment to recognize and honor my late father, Wendell Faught (1929–1998).
Your safety comes first, and I want to be sure you know where to turn during severe weather.
A dust devil is a small, rotating column of air that picks up dust, sand, and debris as it spins across the ground.
Santa Fe’s skies have long held fascination and importance for its residents—from farmers planning their planting season to tourists hoping for sunny strolls down Canyon Road. But where did Santa Fe’s weather records begin, and how have the official observations changed over time?
May is often one of our drier months in Santa Fe, so what is causing us to have several days of rain? It's called the Omega Block.
It won't be raining all the time and there will be a lot of moments this weekend when the weather is very nice. But there is a chance for some decent rain over the next few days. Let's break it down.