NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released the seasonal precipitation outlook between July and September and for the first time in a while, New Mexico could see above normal precipitation. However, it may stay pretty dry until then.
Summer Monsoon Forecast Looks Promising
March 21, 2025
By Jay Faught
According to the latest Seasonal Precipitation Outlook released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on March 20, 2025, Santa Fe and much of north-central New Mexico are forecast to have a greater-than-normal chance of above-average precipitation during the upcoming summer months of July through September.
The forecast map shows a green-shaded area over northern New Mexico, indicating a 40-50% probability of above-normal rainfall. This signal suggests a potentially more active monsoon season — welcome news for Santa Fe, which depends on the North American Monsoon to bring critical moisture during the heart of summer.
Summer rainfall in this region is vitally important, replenishing water supplies, supporting vegetation, and reducing wildfire danger. After years of drought cycles and erratic monsoon activity, many in the region are hopeful that a wetter-than-average season might offer some relief.
However, forecasting the Southwest monsoon is notoriously difficult. Unlike winter precipitation systems that are driven by large-scale, more predictable atmospheric patterns, the monsoon is influenced by a complex mix of factors — including ocean temperatures, subtropical ridges, moisture surges from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific, and even soil moisture and land heating. These variables interact in ways that can vary wildly from week to week and year to year.
As a result, while seasonal outlooks can show a tendency toward wetter or drier conditions, they can’t pinpoint timing, intensity, or precise locations of rainfall. One community might see repeated heavy downpours, while another nearby remains dry — a pattern familiar to those who have experienced Santa Fe summers.
What This Means for Santa Fe:
Increased Monsoon Activity Possible:
Be prepared for more frequent afternoon thunderstorms, especially in July and August.
Flash Flood Risk: Even with a favorable outlook, much of the rain may come in short, intense bursts, increasing the risk of flash flooding in arroyos and burn scar areas.
Uncertain Impacts:
While the outlook is positive, variability within the monsoon means some areas could still end up near or below normal.
Potential Water and Fire Benefits:
If rainfall is widespread, it could help boost reservoir levels, reduce fire danger later in the season, and support healthier vegetation growth.
Despite the challenges in making a precise monsoon forecast, the overall trend for Summer 2025 is encouraging. Santa Feans should remain weather-aware, and stay flexible — as is always the case with the monsoon, expect surprises.
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