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Moving Toward El Niño - What Does that Mean For Santa Fe?

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 03:23:02 GMT

Monsoon Outlook in Santa Fe: What the Latest El Niño Forecast Suggests for Summer Rain

A quick ENSO refresher and why this winter felt so different

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally recurring pattern of ocean temperature and atmospheric circulation changes over the tropical Pacific that can shift weather patterns far from the tropics, including across North America.

El Niño is the warm phase (warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central/eastern tropical Pacific), while
La Niña is the cool phase (cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures there).

Even though ENSO is a tropical phenomenon, it matters here because it can influence the position and strength of the jet stream and storm tracks that deliver (or miss) our precipitation—especially in the cool season.

This past winter’s pattern was consistent with La Niña impacts in New Mexico, which often tilt the odds toward drier-than-normal cool seasons (winter into spring), while El Niño tends to tilt the odds wetter. In fact, New Mexico’s 2025–26 winter has been widely described as exceptionally warm and snow-starved at the statewide scale, with the National Weather Service in Albuquerque citing record-low mountain snowpack and well-above-normal temperatures.

Locally, the story in Santa Fe has been the same theme: very limited snowfall in town and a slow start to spring moisture. In your local tally, Santa Fe has only picked up about 6.3” of snow so far this season, compared with about 22” in a “typical” winter.

La Niña is fading: why we’re entering neutral now and what that usually implies for spring

The latest official update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (issued March 12, 2026) indicates that La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral within about the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May–July 2026.

That “neutral” label does not mean “normal weather.” It simply means the tropical Pacific is not strongly tugging the atmosphere toward either El Niño-like or La Niña-like patterns. When ENSO is neutral, other drivers—shorter-term Pacific variability, land-surface dryness, and regional circulation patterns—often have more influence, and predictability can drop.

For northern New Mexico, the near-term baseline matters too: going into spring, the state has been dealing with record-low snowpack and very warm conditions, which can accelerate drying of soils and fuels and reinforce a warm, dry pattern locally.

62% chance of El Niño developing by early summer, with persistence likely

Here’s the key forecast signal to watch.

In the same March 12, 2026 diagnostic, the CPC states:

El Niño is likely to emerge during June–August 2026, with a 62% chance, and
if El Niño forms, it is expected to persist through at least the end of 2026.

CPC also emphasizes that the strength of a potential El Niño remains uncertain. Still, their current guidance includes a notable risk tail: about a 1-in-3 chance the event could be “strong” by October–December 2026 (Niño-3.4 at or above +1.5°C).

It’s worth highlighting what forecasters mean by “developing in time.” ENSO’s strongest and most reliable regional effects in the Southwest are typically in the cool season (late fall through spring), while the summer monsoon signal is weaker and more conditional. So for monsoon impacts, timing (how quickly the ocean–atmosphere coupling ramps up) can matter as much as whether El Niño happens at all.

What El Niño could mean for the summer monsoon in Santa Fe

First, a reminder of the monsoon season we’re talking about

For New Mexico, the National Weather Service commonly defines the North American Monsoon season as June 15 through September 30. This is when subtropical moisture surges northward and fuels our familiar pattern of afternoon thunderstorms—highly variable from day to day, neighborhood to neighborhood, and year to year.

Because it’s so localized, “good monsoon” can mean different things depending on where you measure, and even strong large-scale climate patterns don’t guarantee consistent outcomes in any one community.

The research consensus: ENSO–monsoon links exist, but they’re not as strong as ENSO’s winter signal

NOAA’s climate science communicators have been blunt about this: ENSO is not strongly linked to North American monsoon rainfall in a simple, reliable way, especially compared with its well-known winter impacts.

Some studies have suggested tendencies (for example, El Niño sometimes aligning with lower July–August rainfall and La Niña with higher early-monsoon rainfall), but the relationship is not robust enough to treat as a “rule.” Additionally, monsoon rainfall in New Mexico and Arizona can vary in statistically independent ways, implying the regional controls can differ across the monsoon domain.

My Monsoon Forecast

That being said, I went ahead and studied all the El Niño years dating back to 1952 and found that 74% of those years corresponded to an above normal monsoon season for Santa Fe. There are certainly bigger patterns at play, but from a completely statistical view, we have a good chance of seeing above normal precipitation this summer. And the long range forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center are starting to show that possibility too. It certainly would be a welcome change from the incredibly dry weather we've been experiencing this winter and spring.

Could this become a strong El Niño, and does “strong” automatically mean a wetter monsoon for Santa Fe?

The CPC’s current outlook notes that if El Niño forms, there is meaningful uncertainty in how strong it ultimately becomes, including a ~1-in-3 chance of “strong” intensity by October–December 2026.

A stronger El Niño can matter because stronger events tend to produce more pronounced, more coherent global circulation anomalies—and therefore can sometimes generate clearer regional impacts. However, for the Santa Fe monsoon:

There is no reliable, one-direction rule that a “strong” El Niño means more or less monsoon rainfall in Santa Fe.
The monsoon is influenced heavily by subtropical ridge position, gulf surges, and mesoscale storm processes that can overwhelm weak-to-moderate ENSO teleconnections.

Where “strong” may matter more directly is later in the year, when ENSO teleconnections to North American storm tracks typically strengthen.

The bigger payoff may be later: what El Niño often means for fall and winter in New Mexico

Even though this article focuses on summer, it’s hard to ignore what the CPC is hinting at: El Niño is not just a summer storyline this year. If it develops as forecast and persists, it could shape the second half of 2026.

For New Mexico, the National Weather Service notes that wetter-than-normal conditions are more likely during El Niño events and drier-than-normal conditions are more likely during La Niña events, particularly during the cool season (winter and spring).

Why that matters right now: this winter’s snow drought and warmth have been severe enough that statewide impacts are already visible. Reporting in mid-March 2026 highlighted record-low statewide snowpack and unusually warm winter temperatures, and noted pressure on winter recreation and water supply concerns. The snow drought has also been tracked in federal drought communications for the West, underscoring how widespread and consequential the deficit has been.

So if El Niño persists into the late fall and winter—as CPC currently expects—the “weather headline” may shift from Can the monsoon break the dry spell? to Can winter storms finally rebuild snowpack?

This is especially relevant for the northern New Mexico high terrain and ski areas, including Ski Santa Fe, where an unusually poor snow year has tangible operational consequences and magnifies the value of any rebound winter.

I'll continue to monitor the El Niño forecast and its impacts on our weather in Santa Fe. For now, it is a hopeful signal that the pattern will be changing.

Top 10 Warmest Winters

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 22:41:56 GMT

The Climate Signal Behind These Warm Winters

A Winter That Tells a Bigger Story: Santa Fe’s Warmest Seasons and the Climate Signal Behind Them

The winter of 2025–2026 finished with an average temperature of 38.8°F, making it the 4th warmest meteorological winter (December through February) ever recorded in Santa Fe. What makes that ranking especially remarkable is that it came despite a a couple of cold snaps in January that temporarily dragged down the seasonal average. Without that stretch of colder weather, this winter likely would have landed among the top three.

But the real headline isn’t just where this winter ranked.

It’s what the entire top-10 list reveals about how Santa Fe’s winter climate is changing.

The Warmest Winters Are No Longer Rare

E very one of the 10 warmest winters on record has occurred since 2000, and nine of them have happened since the winter of 2012–2013.

That kind of clustering in such a short period is not natural variability — it’s a clear climate signal.

For most of the historical record, warm winters were occasional outliers. Now they are becoming the norm. Instead of asking if a winter will be warm enough to challenge the record, we’re increasingly asking how high it will rank.

And the most recent winters have been especially notable:

#1 – 2024–2025
#2 – 2023–2024
#3 – 2021–2022
#4 – 2025–2026

That means four of the warmest winters ever recorded in Santa Fe have occurred in just the past five years.

The Role of January’s Cold Snap

This past winter is a perfect example of how the baseline has shifted.

Both December and February were the warmest on record in Santa Fe. Yet a couple of colder-than-average stretches in January were enough to keep the season from climbing even higher in the rankings.

In a colder climate, a month like that would have defined the winter. In today’s climate, it simply trims the final number slightly. That’s a powerful indication that the background temperature — the baseline — is warmer than it used to be.

The Climate Signal in Santa Fe

When we talk about a “climate signal,” we’re talking about a long-term shift that rises above year-to-year weather variability.

In Santa Fe, that signal is showing up in several clear ways.

Warmer average winter temperatures

Winters are not just occasionally warm — they are consistently warm compared to the past.

Much warmer overnight lows

Nighttime temperatures are rising faster than daytime highs.
This has a huge impact on monthly and seasonal averages and reduces the frequency of deep freezes.

Shorter and less intense cold periods

Cold snaps still happen, but:

They don’t last as long

They are more easily offset by extended warm periods

More winter days in the 50s, 60s, and even 70s

These would have been unusual in past decades. Now they occur almost every winter.

Why This Is Happening

Santa Fe sits at over 7,000 feet, so its climate is highly sensitive to temperature changes. A relatively small regional warming signal translates into a big local impact.

Several factors are contributing:

1. Long-term warming across the Southwest

Average temperatures across New Mexico and the broader Southwest have risen significantly over the past several decades. Winter is one of the fastest-warming seasons.

2. Rising overnight temperatures

Higher humidity, fewer prolonged snow-cover periods, and a warmer atmosphere all help keep nighttime temperatures from dropping as low as they once did.

3. Persistent high-pressure patterns

In recent years, we’ve seen more frequent winter ridging over the region. That brings:

Sunshine
Dry air
Downslope warming
All of which push temperatures above normal.

4. Reduced snow cover

Snow reflects sunlight. Without it, the ground absorbs heat, which:

Warms afternoons
Leads to milder nights

This creates a feedback loop that reinforces warm winters.

What This Means for Future Winters

The most important takeaway is this:

This is no longer a short-term trend — it’s a new climate baseline.

That doesn’t mean Santa Fe won’t have cold or snowy winters again. We absolutely will. Individual seasons will still vary.

But it does mean:

Warm winters will occur more often than cold ones
Top-10 warmest winters will continue to cluster in the modern era
Snowfall will depend more on storm tracks and timing, not just precipitation totals
More winter storms will fall as rain at lower elevations
The snow season will become shorter on average

In other words, the type of winter that once felt unusual is becoming typical.

A Shift You Can Feel

This isn’t just something that shows up in a spreadsheet.

It’s what people across Santa Fe have been noticing:

Fewer prolonged cold stretches
More mid-winter warm spells
Less persistent snow cover in town
Earlier signs of spring

The data now backs up those observations in a very clear way.

Extended Forecast Accuracy

Sun, 08 Feb 2026 17:16:09 GMT

Extended Forecast Accuracy

How Accurate Are Extended Weather Forecasts in Santa Fe?

One of the most common questions I get is: “How reliable is the forecast a week or more in advance—especially here in Santa Fe?”

The short answer is: forecasts are quite accurate in the short term, fairly reliable out to about a week, and increasingly uncertain beyond that. And in a place like Santa Fe, with our complex terrain and microclimates, that uncertainty can grow even faster than in flatter parts of the country.

Understanding how forecast accuracy changes over time can help you use the information more effectively.

Why Forecasting Is Especially Challenging in Santa Fe

Santa Fe sits in a uniquely complex location:

We’re about 7,000 feet in elevation
We’re surrounded by mountains and valleys
We’re influenced by desert, mountain, and plains weather patterns
We sit near major climate boundaries

Just within the metro area, temperatures, wind, and precipitation can vary dramatically from one neighborhood to another. What happens near the Plaza may be very different from what’s happening near the airport, in Eldorado, or up toward the Ski Basin.

Add in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to our east and north, and suddenly weather systems are being lifted, blocked, redirected, or weakened as they move through the region.

All of this makes Santa Fe a fascinating place to forecast—but also a very challenging one.

Days 1–3: High Confidence (Even Here)

For the next one to three days, forecasts in Santa Fe are usually very reliable.

By this point, weather systems are well observed by satellites, radar, weather balloons, and surface stations. Computer models have a strong handle on how fronts, storms, and temperature patterns will interact with our terrain.

During this period, you can usually trust:

High and low temperatures
Snow or rain chances
Wind impacts
Freeze potential

Even with our microclimates, confidence is high in this window.

Days 4–7: Good Guidance, But Terrain Matters More

From about four to seven days out, forecasts are still useful—but this is where Santa Fe’s geography starts to play a bigger role.

At this range:

A storm track shifting 50 miles can mean snow for us…or nothing
A slight temperature change can affect snow levels
Wind direction can determine who gets moisture and who stays dry

In flat areas, these small shifts might not matter much. In northern New Mexico, they matter a lot. So while the overall pattern is usually correct, the local details are still coming into focus.

Beyond 7 Days: Patterns, Not Promises

After about a week, forecast uncertainty increases quickly—especially here.

At Days 8–10:

Models may disagree on storm placement
Mountain effects are harder to predict
Moisture sources may strengthen or weaken
Cold air may arrive too early, too late, or not at all

At this stage, we’re no longer forecasting specific weather events. We’re watching for developing patterns.

Why I Still Show a 10-Day Forecast for Santa Fe

Even with the uncertainty, I continue to provide a 10-day forecast because it offers valuable early insight.

Those last few days often give us clues about:

A possible winter storm setup
A shift toward warmer or colder weather
A developing monsoon pattern in summer
Extended dry spells
Windy periods

For Santa Fe, this is especially important. Many of our biggest weather events—snowstorms, cold outbreaks, heavy monsoon rains—start showing up in the models a week or more in advance.

The 10-day forecast helps us spot those early signals.

Why Extended Forecasts Often Change Here

In Santa Fe, forecasts between 7 and 10 days out change frequently—and that’s normal.

Our terrain can:

Weaken approaching storms
Split precipitation bands
Block cold air
Enhance snowfall in some areas and suppress it in others

A system that looks strong a week out may weaken as it crosses the mountains. A storm that seems too far south may shift north at the last minute. Moisture may dry up before reaching us.

As better data becomes available, the forecast sharpens.

How to Use Santa Fe’s Extended Forecast Wisely

Here’s the best way to think about it:

Days 1–3: High confidence
Days 4–7: Reliable trends, flexible details
Days 8–10: Pattern watching

Use the long-range forecast to stay aware of what might be coming. Then rely on frequent updates as we get closer.

What is a Backdoor Cold Front?

Sun, 11 Jan 2026 22:29:25 GMT

What is a Backdoor Cold Front?

What Is a Backdoor Cold Front and Why They Matter in Santa Fe

When most people think of a cold front, they picture colder air sweeping in from the west or northwest, often behind a Pacific storm system. In New Mexico, however, some of our most noticeable and sometimes frustrating weather changes arrive from the opposite direction. These are known as backdoor cold fronts, and they play an outsized role in Santa Fe’s weather.

What Exactly Is a Backdoor Cold Front?

A backdoor cold front is a shallow surge of cold air that moves west or southwest into New Mexico from the Great Plains, rather than the typical west-to-east progression. These fronts often originate when strong high pressure builds over the central or northern Plains, allowing cold, dense air to spill south and west through gaps in the terrain.

Instead of coming “through the front door” from the Pacific, the cold air sneaks in through the “back door” — often sliding down the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains and pushing into eastern and central New Mexico.

Why New Mexico Is Prone to Backdoor Fronts

New Mexico’s geography makes it especially vulnerable to these events:

Cold air is dense and shallow, allowing it to hug the ground and flow through mountain passes and river valleys.

The Great Plains to our east provide a direct source of continental polar air, especially in fall, winter, and early spring.

Once established, high pressure east of the state can continuously feed cooler air westward for days.

Because these fronts are shallow, they often undercut warmer air aloft, leading to cloudy, chilly conditions at the surface while temperatures just a few thousand feet above the ground remain relatively mild.

How Backdoor Cold Fronts Impact Santa Fe

Santa Fe is particularly sensitive to backdoor cold fronts due to its elevation and location near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

Here’s what typically happens when one arrives:

1. Sudden Temperature Drops

Temperatures in Santa Fe can fall 10–25 degrees in just a few hours, especially during the afternoon or evening when daytime heating is abruptly cut off. A day that starts mild can end feeling wintry.

2. Persistent Cold and Clouds

Because the cold air is shallow and trapped against the east slopes of the mountains, it can be slow to scour out. This often leads to:

Low clouds
Overcast skies
Drizzle, mist, or light freezing precipitation in colder months

These cloudy, cold conditions can linger for several days, even while areas west of the mountains warm up.

3. Upslope Moisture and Light Precipitation

As easterly or northeasterly winds push moist air upslope into the Sangre de Cristos, areas just east of Santa Fe can see:

Light rain or drizzle
Light snow or freezing drizzle in winter
Patchy fog, especially overnight and early morning

These events usually don’t produce heavy precipitation in Santa Fe alone, but they can create slick roads and travel issues, especially along I-25 and through mountain passes. When combined with an upper level low or another storm system with great timing, they can lead to a winter storm in Santa Fe.

4. Sharp Microclimate Differences

One hallmark of a backdoor front is dramatic temperature contrasts:

Santa Fe may be stuck in the 30s or 40s with clouds
Albuquerque could be warmer or sunnier and impacted by strong winds
Western New Mexico may remain mild and dry

This makes forecasting tricky and explains why Santa Fe’s weather can feel out of sync with areas just to our west.

When Are Backdoor Cold Fronts Most Common?

Backdoor cold fronts can occur any time of year, but they are most frequent and impactful during:

Late fall
Winter
Early spring

In summer, weaker versions can sometimes bring brief cooling and upslope thunderstorms, but they are generally less dramatic than their cold-season counterparts.

Why They’re So Important for Forecasting Santa Fe Weather

For Santa Fe, backdoor cold fronts often determine:

Whether temperatures stay mild or turn sharply colder
How long clouds linger
Whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, or freezing drizzle
Overnight low temperatures and frost potential

They are also one of the main reasons long-range forecasts for Santa Fe can change quickly, especially when strong high pressure develops east of the Rockies.

The Bottom Line

Backdoor cold fronts are a defining feature of Northern New Mexico weather, and the eastern half of New Mexico feels their effects more than most places in the state. While they rarely bring major storms, they can dramatically change temperatures, cloud cover, and travel conditions — sometimes very quickly.

Understanding these fronts helps explain why Santa Fe can go from sunny and mild to cold and gray in a matter of hours, even when the forecast elsewhere looks quiet.

Top 10 Weather Events of 2025

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 18:19:11 GMT

Top 10 Weather Events of 2025

Top 10 Santa Fe Weather Events of 2025

From record warmth to powerful winds — and even a blast of true Arctic cold — 2025 was a year of weather extremes in Santa Fe. While we didn’t see a classic snowy winter, the atmosphere made up for it in other ways, delivering memorable moments that shaped our year and impacted daily life across northern New Mexico.

Each of these events tells a bigger story about the patterns that drove our weather in 2025 — from persistent warmth and dryness to brief but intense departures from the norm. Here’s a look back at the Top 10 Santa Fe Weather Events of 2025, and what they reveal about the year that was.

#10 Santa Fe's Coldest Day of Year

The coldest temperature of 2025 in Santa Fe occurred on January 21, when the temperature dropped to -6°. This bitter cold was caused by a true Arctic air mass that plunged south out of Canada and spread across much of the central United States.

Unlike typical winter cold fronts, this air mass was exceptionally dense and shallow, allowing it to funnel south through the Plains and into New Mexico. Once it reached Santa Fe, clear skies, light winds, and fresh cold air allowed temperatures to drop sharply overnight.

This was not just a local event — the cold air covered a large portion of the country, bringing subzero temperatures and dangerous wind chills from the northern Plains all the way into the Southwest. It was one of the coldest and most widespread cold outbreaks of the winter, and a reminder of what true Arctic air can still deliver, even during otherwise mild winters.

#9 Drought

After coming off of a very dry winter, the spring started with Extreme Drought in Santa Fe. In April, extreme drought extended throughout the northern mountains. However, some much needed and unusual spring rains came in May and June which erased the drought in Eastern New Mexico. Drought conditions still persisted in Santa Fe, but the rains helped tremendously and reduced the fire risk.

#8 Monsoon Season

Thanks to a wet June and September and near normal rainfall in August, the monsoon season finished with a little more than an inch above normal. The summer certainly had some notable dry stretches, but heavy rains made up for the dry periods. The rainfall was spotty however, as monsoon moisture often can be. Albuquerque was much below normal for the monsoon season.

#7 Lack of Snow

On average, Santa Fe picks up about 22 inches of snow each winter, and when you look at the entire 2024–2025 season, we actually came fairly close to that number. But the story behind it matters.

Nearly 15 inches fell in a single storm in November 2024, doing most of the heavy lifting for the season. After that, snowfall was sparse. When you narrow it down to calendar year 2025, the lack of snow really stands out:

• 7.9 inches fell between January and April

• 2.1 inches fell in early December

That puts total snowfall for 2025 at just 10 inches — well below what we’d typically expect in a normal year.

#6 Summer Heat

For the third year in a row, Santa Fe made it into the top 4 years for the number of 90-degree days in a summer. In 2025, we hit 90 or above 45 times. All of this occurred June, July, and August. Each month we hit 90-degrees 15 times.

#5 100° in Santa Fe

Santa Fe reached 100° on July 10, making it just the third time the city has officially hit triple digits—and all three have happened this decade.

The all-time record high for Santa Fe is 102°, set on June 14, 2021. The city then hit 100° on July 18, 2023, before doing it again this year.

A quick note on the data: you may see slightly different numbers from the National Weather Service. There’s a 40-year gap (1958–1998) in the official record, so for long-term analysis I use a dataset that includes continuous records back to 1874. Since 2021, these temperature observations have been taken at the Santa Fe airport, which is typically warmer than much of the city.

That shift in observation location helps explain why Santa Fe didn’t officially record 100° days until recently. So yes—climate change is warming the planet, but elevation and location also play a role.

#4 La Niña Development

La Niña, the cooling of Pacific waters near the equator and the opposite of El Niño, typically brings warmer temperatures and drier conditions to New Mexico. That’s exactly what we’ve seen so far this winter in Santa Fe.

This is a weak La Niña, though, and forecasts still point to a possible shift toward ENSO-neutral conditions late this winter or early spring. If that transition happens in time, we could see a more active second half of the season. That said, it’s now looking likely we’ll finish the winter below our normal ~22 inches of snowfall.

#3 Record Warm December

We’re not quite done with the month yet, but so far December 2025 is on track to be the warmest December ever recorded in Santa Fe.

The La Niña pattern didn’t just bring above-normal temperatures, it delivered 10 days of record-highs at the Santa Fe Airport including the warmest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

#2 Spring Winds

New Mexico is no stranger to spring wind, but 2025 took it to another level. Santa Fe experienced an unusually high number of windy days, with wind gusts topping 60 mph on multiple occasions.

Those strong winds followed an extremely dry winter, kicking up dust and leading to dangerous dust storms across the state. At least one major event caused a multi-vehicle pileup on I-25 south of Santa Fe, while in southern New Mexico, I-10 near Deming was closed several times due to near-zero visibility and crashes.

It was a stark reminder that in New Mexico, wind can be just as impactful, and dangerous, as snow or storms.

#1 Record May Rainfall

After a very dry winter and an even drier start to spring, early May delivered a remarkable turnaround. From May 4–6, Santa Fe was hit with several days of heavy rain — an unusual event for a time of year that’s typically one of our driest.

In just those three days, Santa Fe picked up roughly a quarter of our average annual rainfall. While the airport officially measured 1.65 inches, much of the city saw over 3 inches, especially near the foothills on the east side. The intense rainfall led to flooding in homes and businesses, highlighting how vulnerable Santa Fe can be when heavy rain falls over a short period of time.

That May event, combined with another significant rain in June, ultimately pushed 2025’s annual rainfall above normal. Without those two storms, the year would have ended well below average.

A powerful reminder that in Santa Fe, just a few well-timed storms can completely change the story of an entire year.

Classic La Niña Pattern

Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:48:34 GMT

A Deep Dive into the Winter Season So Far

Why Has It Been So Warm in Santa Fe - and Will it Last?

If you’ve been enjoying the mild afternoons lately, you’re not imagining things. Santa Fe has been running unseasonably warm for much of December, with daytime highs frequently climbing well above normal and very little in the way of cold air or snow. It’s a pattern that has raised plenty of questions — especially with Christmas just around the corner.

So what’s going on, and should we expect a change anytime soon?

A Classic La Niña Pattern

The warmth we’re experiencing is very typical of a La Niña winter, particularly early in the season. During La Niña, cooler-than-normal waters in the equatorial Pacific tend to shift the jet stream farther north. For New Mexico, that often means:

Fewer storms tracking through the Southwest
More frequent ridging (high pressure) over the region
Warmer daytime temperatures
Longer dry stretches between storms

In Santa Fe, La Niña winters often start slow, especially when it comes to snowfall. Cold air struggles to push this far south, and storm systems that might normally bring snow either weaken or pass well to our north.

Will This Warm Pattern Last Through Christmas?

This is the question I’m hearing most right now — and based on current data, yes, the pattern looks likely to hold through Christmas and probably through the end of the year.

Forecast models continue to show persistent high pressure nearby, limited storm activity, and temperatures staying above normal for late December. That doesn’t mean we can’t sneak in a brief cool-down or a weak system, but at this point it does mean there’s no clear signal for a sustained cold or snowy pattern before the calendar flips to January.

In other words, if you’re hoping for a white Christmas in Santa Fe, the odds aren’t looking great this year. Mild afternoons, chilly nights, and generally dry conditions remain the most likely outcome through the holiday period.

Does That Mean the Rest of Winter Is a Bust?

Not necessarily — and this is where things get more interesting.

While La Niña is currently influencing our weather, longer-range climate guidance continues to suggest that this event may weaken as we move deeper into winter. Several climate models are still pointing toward a transition out of La Niña and into an ENSO-neutral pattern later in the season.

That matters because ENSO-neutral winters can open the door to a very different setup for New Mexico.

What Happens If We Shift to ENSO Neutral?

If La Niña fades and we move into neutral conditions, the jet stream often becomes more variable and less locked into one position. For Santa Fe, that can mean:

More frequent storm systems reaching the Southwest
Better opportunities for colder air to move south
An increased chance for snow-producing systems
More active weather during the second half of winter

Historically, some of our better snow seasons in northern New Mexico have featured slow starts followed by a more active late winter. February and even early March can end up doing a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to seasonal snowfall totals.

The Bottom Line

The recent warmth is not unusual for a La Niña winter, especially in December
Current trends suggest mild and mostly dry weather through Christmas and the end of the year
There are credible signs that La Niña may weaken later this winter
If we transition to ENSO-neutral conditions, colder and potentially snowier weather could arrive during the second half of winter

So while it may feel more like fall or spring than winter right now, winter isn’t over by a long shot (technically, it hasn't even started). Santa Fe winters have a habit of saving some surprises for later — and I’ll be watching closely to see if that late-season pattern shift begins to show up in the weeks ahead.

Stay tuned.

Updated Storm Track for this Weekend

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 16:34:34 GMT

Updated Storm Track for this Weekend

Updated Storm Track for Weekend Storm

November 14, 2025

By Jay Faught

The storm system we’ve been watching all week has shifted—but this time, it’s slowing down and taking a more northerly route. That updated path dramatically changes the weekend forecast for Santa Fe and northern New Mexico.

A Slower, More Northern Storm Track

Earlier projections had the storm sweeping into New Mexico sooner, with a more organized band of moisture. But the latest data shows the system digging more slowly along the West Coast and pushing a bit farther north than originally expected.

That shift means Southern California will now take the brunt of the storm, with periods of heavy rain and even flooding concerns in some areas. For us in Santa Fe, however, the impacts will be much more limited.

Santa Fe’s Updated Forecast: Light and Late

Instead of showers developing Saturday or early Sunday, the latest timing suggests isolated light rain showers won’t arrive until Sunday night. The moisture feed simply doesn’t extend far enough south to bring widespread precipitation to our area.

Here’s what that means for your weekend plans:

Most of the weekend stays dry—great news if you're planning outdoor activities around town or on the trails.
Isolated showers Sunday night may bring brief dampness but nothing widespread or soaking.

Snow Levels: Staying High

There will be just enough moisture and lift Sunday night into early Monday for a few flakes in the higher terrain:

Light snow is possible above 9,000 feet, mainly over the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
Accumulations look minimal, and ski areas won’t see major impacts, though the first hints of winter are always exciting.
Valleys, including Santa Fe, will stay warm enough for just light rain if anything at all.

Bottom Line

While this storm is impressive for the West Coast, its slower and more northern track means Santa Fe will see only minor impacts—mostly a few isolated showers Sunday night and perhaps a dusting of snow high in the mountains.

A bigger takeaway: this pattern shift still hints at an active atmosphere as we move deeper into November. It’s a good reminder that our storm season is just getting started.

Weather Forecasts for Balloon Fiesta

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 15:38:27 GMT

The Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta may look magical, but every launch depends on one thing: the wind.

The Critical Role of Weather Forecasts at the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta

Saturday, October 4, 2025

By Jay Faught

Every October, the skies above Albuquerque come alive with the colors and shapes of hundreds of hot air balloons. The Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta is one of the most photographed events in the world and a signature celebration for New Mexico. But behind the beauty of this spectacle lies something far less visible but absolutely critical: the weather forecast.

Why Weather Matters So Much for Ballooning

Hot air balloons are more vulnerable to weather conditions than almost any other form of aviation. They don’t have engines to control their movement, and instead, they rely on the winds to carry them across the sky. Because of this, even small changes in wind speed or direction can make the difference between a safe, scenic flight and a grounded balloon.

While temperature, visibility, and precipitation all matter, it’s the wind that truly dictates whether balloons can fly.

The Wind Factor

Balloons need calm and predictable winds to lift off and navigate safely. Typically, flights at the Fiesta happen early in the morning when the atmosphere is most stable. At that time, the winds are usually lighter and less variable, giving pilots a smoother and safer ride.

Surface Winds: If the wind at the ground is stronger than about 10-12 mph, launches may be canceled. Stronger winds can make it dangerous for balloons to inflate, launch, or land.

Winds Aloft: Higher up, pilots depend on layers of wind moving in different directions to navigate. Forecasts showing unstable or gusty winds at altitude often mean flights won’t happen.

Wind Shifts: Sudden changes in direction are especially concerning, as balloons can be pushed into each other or into unsafe areas.

Balloon Fiesta Weather Teams

To ensure safety, the Balloon Fiesta employs expert meteorologists who monitor conditions around the clock. Using weather balloons, radar, satellite data, and ground observations, they provide pilots with the latest updates before and during events. These forecasts guide the decision of whether to fly, delay, or cancel a launch.

Many spectators may be disappointed when flights are grounded due to wind, but these decisions protect pilots, passengers, and the massive crowds on the ground. Safety always comes first, and the weather call is the single most important factor in that process.

When the Winds Cooperate

When conditions are right, Albuquerque’s unique geography creates a phenomenon called the “Albuquerque Box.” This is a pattern of winds at different altitudes that allows balloonists to navigate in a kind of loop—flying south at one level, then climbing higher to catch a northbound wind, and sometimes even returning close to their original launch site. It’s a breathtaking experience for pilots and spectators alike, but it only happens when the wind forecast is just right.

The Takeaway

The Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta is a feast for the senses, but it’s also a lesson in how powerful and unpredictable nature can be. Weather forecasts, especially wind predictions, are not just helpful—they are essential. Every flight is a collaboration between the skill of the pilot and the forces of the atmosphere.

So the next time you’re standing among the crowds at Balloon Fiesta Park, looking up at a sky filled with colorful balloons, remember: it all depends on the wind.

The 2025 Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta takes place from Saturday, October 4 through Sunday, October 12.

What is Virga

Sun, 17 Aug 2025 16:03:48 GMT

If you’ve lived in Santa Fe for any length of time, you’ve probably seen what looks like streaks of rain falling from clouds — but then you notice the ground stays bone dry. That phenomenon is called virga, and it’s a regular part of our weather here in northern New Mexico.

Virga - The Rain that Never Reaches the Ground

August 19, 2025

By Jay Faught

What is Virga?

Virga occurs when rain or snow begins falling from a cloud but evaporates (or sublimates, in the case of snow) before it can reach the ground. This happens most often in dry climates like ours, where the lower levels of the atmosphere have very low humidity. Essentially, the precipitation is “stolen” by the dry air before it completes its journey to the surface.

From a distance, virga looks like wispy streaks or curtains of precipitation hanging below clouds, often tapering away before touching the earth. It can make for some stunning sunsets when the low-angle light catches those streaks.

Why is Virga Common in Santa Fe?

At 7,000 feet above sea level, Santa Fe sits in a semi-arid climate where the atmosphere is often quite dry. Even when monsoon moisture is present, the lower levels of the atmosphere can remain dry enough to evaporate rain before it hits the ground. That’s why you might see dark clouds overhead, even flashes of lightning, but still end up without a drop of measurable rainfall.

How Virga Impacts Our Weather

While virga may look harmless, it can have real impacts:

Gusty Winds: As the rain evaporates, it cools the air, making it denser. That cooler air rushes downward and then spreads out when it hits the ground, creating sudden bursts of wind known as outflow winds or gust fronts. These are often the reason for our blustery afternoons and evenings when storms are nearby but not directly overhead.
Dry Thunderstorms: Sometimes virga is paired with lightning that strikes the ground while the rain never makes it down. This is a classic setup for wildfire danger in New Mexico — a storm that produces lightning but no helpful rainfall.

False Hope for Rain: Many of us know the frustration of watching promising clouds build up only to realize the “rain” never arrives. Virga is a big reason why Santa Fe can have active skies but relatively low annual rainfall totals.

Winter Snowfall Forecast

Sat, 02 Aug 2025 03:49:59 GMT

With it being so hot out this week, I can't think of a better time to talk about a winter snowfall forecast.

Winter Snowfall Forecast (2025-2026)

August 5, 2025

By Jay Faught

Winter Snowfall Forecast for Los Alamos (and What It Means for Santa Fe)

When it comes to predicting snowfall for northern New Mexico, reliable historical data is essential. Unfortunately, Santa Fe’s snowfall records are patchy and inconsistent over the years, which makes it difficult to use them as a solid forecasting base. That’s why I turned to Los Alamos—just 30 miles away and about 1,000 feet higher—for my winter snowfall analysis.

Los Alamos benefits from decades of well-kept snowfall records and sits in a location where winter weather patterns are often a good proxy for Santa Fe’s trends. While Los Alamos typically receives more snow due to its elevation—an annual average of 42.2 inches compared to Santa Fe’s 22 inches—both communities are influenced by the same large-scale weather patterns.

Looking at the Numbers

I examined Los Alamos snowfall data going back more than 70 years, categorized by ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral). The upcoming winter is forecast to be a very weak La Niña or ENSO-neutral, meaning the Pacific Ocean will not be strongly tilted toward warm (El Niño) or cool (La Niña) conditions.

Historically, Neutral winters in Los Alamos average 51.2 inches of snow—about 9 inches above the long-term normal. If the same pattern holds, Los Alamos could be in for a near-normal to slightly above-normal snow season, likely landing somewhere between 45 and 55 inches by spring.

What This Means for Santa Fe

Because Santa Fe sits lower in elevation, it normally receives about half as much snow as Los Alamos. While the raw snowfall totals won’t match, the trend will. If Los Alamos sees near-normal or slightly above-normal snow this winter, Santa Fe should experience the same relative outcome. That means residents can expect around 20–23 inches of snow for the season, which is close to the city’s long-term average of 22 inches.

Factors That Could Shift the Forecast

While ENSO is a major driver of winter precipitation patterns, it’s not the only one. Other climate signals—like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and random atmospheric patterns—can swing snowfall totals significantly in either direction. Temperature trends will also matter, since warmer storms can produce more rain than snow even in the winter months.

Final Word

Based on historical trends for Neutral ENSO winters, Los Alamos is likely looking at a snow season in the near-normal to slightly above-normal range. For Santa Fe, that means around 20–23 inches of snow by spring.

So keep your snow shovels handy, but don’t expect a record-breaking year—this winter should feel pretty typical for northern New Mexico.

Are Tornadoes Becoming More Common?

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 17:37:04 GMT

I dove into the data to find out if the frequency of tornadoes are actually increasing in Santa Fe County.

Are Tornadoes Becoming More Common in Santa Fe County?

July 25, 2025

By Jay Faught

Recently someone asked me if I thought tornadoes were becoming more common in our area and whether that could be attributed to climate change. At first I thought, they probably have become more frequent. So I dove into the data to find out what the numbers really show.

Tornado History in New Mexico

Using tornado records from 1950 through 2024, New Mexico has seen a total of 663 tornadoes. As expected, most of them occurred in the eastern plains of the state, where the geography and climate are more favorable for tornado development.

But what about Santa Fe County?

Between 1950 and 2024, there were 18 confirmed tornadoes in Santa Fe County. That averages out to about two tornadoes per decade. Here's the breakdown by decade:

1950s: 4 tornadoes
1960s: 2 tornadoes
1970s: 2 tornadoes
1980s: 2 tornadoes
1990s: 1 tornado
2000s: 3 tornadoes
2010s: 3 tornadoes
2020s (so far): 1 tornado

From that data, there’s no strong evidence that tornadoes are becoming more frequent in Santa Fe County . In fact, the numbers have remained fairly consistent over the decades, with slight variation. The county averages about one tornado every five years.

Tornado Intensity in Santa Fe County

Of the 18 tornadoes reported since 1950:

16 were rated EF0, the weakest rating on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with winds between 65 and 85 mph.
2 were rated EF1, with winds between 86 and 110 mph.

One of the more noteworthy events occurred in 1966, when an EF1 tornado near what is now Buffalo Thunder Resort caused an estimated $250,000 in damage—a significant impact for the time.

Why Tornado Warnings May Feel More Frequent

Even though the actual number of tornadoes hasn't increased significantly, it may feel like we're hearing about them more often—and there's a reason for that.

In the past, tornado warnings were typically only issued when someone visually confirmed a tornado on the ground. But thanks to advances in technology, today’s high-resolution radar systems can detect potential rotation in the clouds even before a tornado touches down—or in some cases, even if one never does.

These radar-indicated warnings are an important tool used by the National Weather Service to provide earlier alerts and help keep people safe. This increase in warning frequency reflects improved detection, not necessarily more tornadoes.

Where to Get Weather Information

If you’re looking for daily, local forecasts specifically for Santa Fe and surrounding areas, check out my Santa Fe Weather Facebook group and visit my website at santafewx.com . I provide forecast-focused information tailored to our region, which can help you prepare for the days ahead.

That said, for real-time updates, severe weather warnings, and emergency information, your best resources remain the National Weather Service, a NOAA Weather Radio, or a trusted mobile app with push alerts for your location. These sources are designed to provide immediate, life-saving information when it matters most.

Santa Fe's Microclimates

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 22:23:06 GMT

Santa Fe may not be a sprawling metropolis, but its unique topography gives it a surprising range of microclimates.

Santa Fe's Microclimates

July 11, 2025

By Jay Faught

Santa Fe may be known for its rich culture and historic charm, but one of its lesser-known characteristics is the dramatic variation in weather across its relatively small footprint. From the low, open spaces near the airport to the high alpine reaches of Ski Santa Fe, elevation and terrain shape a patchwork of microclimates that can make daily conditions feel surprisingly different from one neighborhood to the next.

Let’s start with the Santa Fe Regional Airport, which sits on the city’s southwest edge at approximately 6,348 feet above sea level. This is where official weather readings for the city are taken, making it the standard baseline for forecasts. The terrain here is broad and relatively flat, which allows for quick daytime warming but also significant overnight cooling. The open exposure often means stronger winds, and precipitation can be lighter compared to the surrounding hills and mountains. It’s not unusual for this area to be dry while other parts of the city are receiving rain or snow.

Just eight to ten miles north and several hundred feet higher lies the Plaza district, the heart of historic Santa Fe. This area sits closer to 7,000 feet in elevation and is characterized by more tree cover, hills, and a more sheltered landscape. Compared to the airport, the Plaza typically stays a few degrees cooler during the day and can hold onto snow or ice longer after a storm. Winds are often calmer, and the terrain allows for slightly more moisture retention, which is important for gardens and landscaping.

Head a little further east and up in elevation, and you arrive at Canyon Road, home to some of Santa Fe’s most iconic art galleries. At roughly 7,200 feet, Canyon Road is slightly cooler than the Plaza and even more sheltered. The narrow, winding streets, elevation, and tree cover can make this area feel surprisingly crisp on cool mornings or after a light snow. It’s a favorite spot in fall and spring, when its golden cottonwoods and blooming trees come alive. Compared to the airport, Canyon Road is often 5 to 7 degrees cooler and sees snow that accumulates more readily and melts more slowly.

Drive just 16 miles further up the mountain, and you reach Ski Santa Fe, where the base lodge sits at an elevation of around 10,350 feet—and the summit climbs even higher. This alpine environment is a world apart from the airport. Temperatures at Ski Santa Fe are typically 15 to 25 degrees colder than in town, and storms are more intense and more frequent. While the airport may report a light rain or flurries, Ski Santa Fe could be in the midst of a heavy snowstorm. Snowpack persists into late spring, and the mountain can experience its own isolated weather systems that bypass the rest of the city entirely.

In contrast, the southern outskirts—including La Cienega and Rancho Viejo—lie near or even slightly below the airport’s elevation. These communities often experience warmer daytime highs, especially in spring and fall. With less topographic relief and fewer trees, this area is more exposed to sun and wind. Morning frost may linger a bit longer here in winter, but by mid-afternoon, temperatures often rise more quickly than in town. Precipitation tends to be lighter, and summer storms can feel more sporadic.

So what does this all mean for weather in Santa Fe? Simply put: the forecast you see for the Santa Fe Airport is just one piece of the puzzle. Live near the Plaza or Canyon Road? Expect slightly cooler, calmer, and more moisture-retentive conditions. Living on the south side near Rancho Viejo? You may enjoy warmer afternoons and more wind. Heading up to Ski Santa Fe? Dress like you’re traveling to another state—it’s an entirely different climate zone.

For locals, these microclimates shape everyday life—from what you plant in your garden to what jacket you grab before heading out the door. For visitors, they’re part of the magic of Santa Fe: a place where you can sip coffee on a sunny patio downtown in the morning, and by lunchtime, be carving fresh powder on the mountain.

So the next time you hear the weather forecast for Santa Fe, remember—it’s a great starting point, but it may not tell the whole story of where you are.

The Perfect Storm: What Caused the Deadly Flooding in Texas Hill Country

Sun, 06 Jul 2025 14:45:05 GMT

A rare combination of tropical moisture, stalled thunderstorms, and rugged Hill Country terrain created the perfect setup for catastrophe. I broke down the weather ingredients that led to this deadly flash flood.

The Perfect Storm: What Caused the Deadly Flooding in Texas Hill Country

July 6, 2025

By Jay Faught

1. Remnants of Tropical Storm Barry

Late on July 3, the decaying mid-level circulation of Atlantic Tropical Storm Barry, enriched by tropical moisture, moved into Texas and merged into a broader upper‑level trough. Soon after, intense thunderstorms developed and rapidly turned into a large mesoscale convective complex, unleashing torrential rainfall across the Hill Country.

2. Exceptional Atmospheric Moisture

Multiple moisture sources fed the storm:

Warm Gulf of Mexico waters elevated evaporative potential.
Additional moisture streaming westward from the eastern Pacific.
Pre-existing dry soils (due to drought) meant nearly all rainfall turned into runoff rather than soaking in

3. Stalled, Slow-Moving Thunderstorms (“Training”)

Rather than moving on quickly, the storms stalled over the same areas, dropping band after band of rain in what meteorologists call “training thunderstorms.” This happened because a stagnant upper‑level pattern left no jet-stream steering to push storms away

4. Extreme Rainfall Rates

Rain totals far exceeded forecasts: in just a few hours, 5–11 inches of rain fell over south‑central Kerr County, with radar‑indicated maxima approaching 15 inches—and in isolated pockets up to 20 inches. That translates to over 120 billion gallons of rain landing over the region nearly instantaneously.

Terrain and Hydrology: Nature’s Amplifiers

Hill Country Topography

Kerr County sits in Texas’s Hill Country, featuring steep, rocky hills, narrow valleys, and shallow limestone or granite soils that resist water absorption. When heavy rain hits, gravity rapidly funnels water into creeks and rivers with little to no infiltration—like pouring over concrete.

Fast-Rising Guadalupe River

The Guadalupe River Basin received almost all the runoff. At Hunt, gauges showed a 22‑foot rise in 2 hours, failing when it hit 29 feet. Downstream in Kerrville, levels rose 21 feet; in Comfort, the river surged nearly 29.9 feet, eclipsing historic flood levels from 1987.

The Perfect Storm

Forecast Limitations

NWS had issued Flood Watches and eventually Flash Flood Emergencies. But models typically struggle to predict extremes in locations and magnitudes for mesoscale systems like these. It’s especially hard to forecast where training bands will settle—just a few miles can turn minor to catastrophic flooding.

Timing and Awareness

The flash flood emergency came in the early pre-dawn hours, when most people—campers, tourists, residents—were asleep. Combined with limited sounding warnings in Kerr County, many were caught completely off guard.

The Summer Monsoon

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 23:10:52 GMT

If you've been in Santa Fe for any period of time, you've already encountered the summer monsoon. But do you know what it really is and how much we depend on it?

Understanding the Southwest Monsoon: What it Means for Santa Fe

June 18, 2025

By Jay Faught

When the summer months arrive in the Southwest, residents across New Mexico—and especially here in Santa Fe—start to anticipate the arrival of a familiar and vital seasonal shift: the Southwest Monsoon. Also known as the North American Monsoon, this annual weather pattern brings much-needed rainfall to our typically dry landscape and is essential for replenishing water sources, nourishing vegetation, and providing some relief from the summer heat.

What Is the Southwest Monsoon?

The Southwest Monsoon is a seasonal wind and moisture pattern that develops each summer, primarily affecting the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. It’s marked by a dramatic increase in thunderstorm activity, higher humidity, and a noticeable shift in wind patterns that draw moisture into the region from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of California, and sometimes the Gulf of Mexico.

Unlike the monsoons in India or Southeast Asia that bring weeks of steady, soaking rains, the Southwest Monsoon produces scattered, often intense thunderstorms that can develop quickly and bring heavy downpours, lightning, strong winds, hail, and even flash flooding—sometimes all in one afternoon.

When Does the Monsoon Occur?

The monsoon season typically begins in late June or early July and lasts through early September. In Santa Fe, we usually see our first true monsoon storms by the first or second week of July, with activity peaking in late July and early August. By mid-September, the pattern typically weakens and drier air returns.

However, the timing can vary each year depending on broader weather patterns like El Niño or La Niña, sea surface temperatures, and even lingering spring weather systems that delay the onset of the high-pressure ridge needed for monsoon flow.

How the Monsoon Forms

The Southwest Monsoon is driven by changes in atmospheric pressure and temperature as summer heat builds across the region. Here's how it works:

Heating of the land – As the sun beats down on the Southwest, the land heats up quickly, especially in desert areas. This creates a large area of low pressure over the interior Southwest.
Shift in wind patterns – At the same time, a high-pressure system—often centered over the Four Corners region—begins to form in the upper atmosphere. This “monsoon ridge” helps steer moist air from the Pacific and Gulf regions northward.
Moisture influx – As moisture-laden air moves into the Southwest, the intense surface heating causes the air to rise rapidly, creating towering cumulus clouds. This often leads to afternoon and evening thunderstorms that pop up with little warning.
Local terrain effects – In Santa Fe and other mountainous areas, the landscape enhances this pattern. Mountains act as natural triggers, forcing moist air upslope and helping fuel stronger storm development.

The Monsoon in Santa Fe

In Santa Fe, the monsoon brings some of our most active and dramatic weather of the year. Our elevation and terrain play a big role in shaping local thunderstorm development. While storms can be hit or miss, the rain they provide is vital for reducing wildfire risk, replenishing soil moisture, and supporting gardens, trees, and wildlife that rely on summer rains.

That said, monsoon season also brings hazards. Flash flooding can occur quickly, especially in arroyos and low-lying areas. Lightning is frequent and can spark new wildfires or cause power outages. It’s important to stay weather-aware and take storm warnings seriously, especially during the peak of the season.

Looking Ahead

The strength and timing of each year’s monsoon can vary significantly. Some years, Santa Fe sees generous rainfall and lush, green landscapes. Other years, the monsoon may fail to deliver, leaving behind drought conditions and stressed vegetation.

But whether it’s a blockbuster monsoon season or a more modest one, this unique weather phenomenon is a defining feature of summer in the Southwest—and a vital lifeline for our high-desert home.

Stay Informed:

For localized updates on monsoon activity and daily weather forecasts tailored to Santa Fe, be sure to follow the Santa Fe Weather Facebook Group , where I post regular updates, storm outlooks, and helpful insights into what’s happening in our skies.

Plain Talk

Sun, 15 Jun 2025 16:55:03 GMT

On a personal note for this Father’s Day, I want to take a moment to recognize and honor my late father, Wendell Faught (1929–1998).

A Father's Day Reflection: Remembering Wendell Faught

June 15, 2025

By Jay Faught

On a personal note for this Father’s Day, I want to take a moment to recognize and honor my late father, Wendell Faught (1929–1998). He was more than a dad—he was a storyteller, a journalist, and a quiet observer of the world around him.

For more than two decades, he served as the editor and publisher of the Deming Headlight and was at one point President of the New Mexico Press Association. His journalism career took him to newspapers across New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma, but no matter where he went, one thing remained constant: his column, Plain Talk.

Plain Talk was exactly what the title promised—thoughtful, straightforward, and often laced with humor. Sometimes he wrote about our family. Other times he used current events as a backdrop to make broader observations about society, always with a tone that managed to bring people together, regardless of political views.

One of my favorite columns is from 1963. In it, he wrote—humorously but pointedly—about how rude it was to be in someone’s office only for the phone to ring and the person to answer it mid-conversation. He questioned why someone would give priority to a caller whose identity they didn’t even know, over the person sitting right in front of them. I think about that piece often, especially now, when our cell phones and screens constantly compete for our attention. My father passed away long before smartphones became a part of daily life, but his message has only become more relevant with time.

When we moved into our current home, I created a space called the “Newsroom”—a tribute to his lifelong work in journalism. One wall is dedicated entirely to him, with clippings of his articles and columns spanning his career. It’s a space where his voice still echoes.

Even though he’s no longer with us, my father’s words—and the impact they had—continue to live on. Not just for me, but for everyone who read Plain Talk and found a little bit of wisdom, laughter, or connection in his words.

Happy Father’s Day, Dad. Your voice still matters.

Where to Go For Real Time Severe Weather Warnings

Fri, 30 May 2025 14:03:35 GMT

Your safety comes first, and I want to be sure you know where to turn during severe weather.

Why the Santa Fe Weather Group is a Great Resource - And When to Go Elsewhere

May 30, 2025

By Jay Faught

If you're looking for accurate, locally focused weather forecasts tailored specifically to Santa Fe and the surrounding areas, the Santa Fe Weather Facebook Group is a fantastic resource. I created this group because I saw a real need for daily, location-specific forecasts that go beyond what the broader Albuquerque-based media outlets provide. Living in Santa Fe myself, I understand how different our weather patterns can be—even just a few miles apart. If you want to learn about my background and education - read this article .

In the group, I share daily forecasts, weekend outlooks, and explanations of local weather patterns in a way that’s easy to understand. My goal is to help you plan your day, your weekend, and even your travel, based on the unique weather conditions here in northern New Mexico.

But Let’s Talk About Severe Weather…

As helpful as this group can be, there are limits to what I can provide—especially when it comes to real-time updates during severe weather events. I have a full-time job outside of this group, and while I try to stay on top of weather developments, I may not always be available during critical moments like fast-developing thunderstorms or flash flood warnings.

That’s why I strongly encourage everyone to use official, up-to-the-minute sources for severe weather alerts, especially during thunderstorm season. These include:

✅ National Weather Service (NWS): https://www.weather.gov/abq

✅ NOAA Weather Radio – especially useful if your internet or power goes out

✅ Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) on your phone

✅ The NWS mobile app or weather.gov mobile site

✅ Trusted weather apps like WeatherBug, MyRadar, or RadarScope

✅ TV stations with dedicated weather teams during breaking weather situations

Stay Safe and Informed

We’ve already seen how quickly storms can pop up in our area, and we haven't even started monsoon season. Even a seemingly routine summer afternoon can quickly turn into a dangerous weather situation.

So while the Santa Fe Weather Facebook Group is here to help you understand what’s coming and why, your personal safety always comes first. Please make sure you’re also using tools that can alert you immediately if severe weather is heading your way.

I’ll continue sharing thoughtful, accurate local forecasts—and some weather nerd fun along the way—but let’s all be smart and stay safe out there.

What are Dust Devils?

Sat, 17 May 2025 14:41:08 GMT

A dust devil is a small, rotating column of air that picks up dust, sand, and debris as it spins across the ground.

Whirling Wonders of the Desert: Dust Devils

May 17, 2025

By Jay Faught

If you’ve spent any time in Santa Fe or the surrounding high desert, chances are you’ve spotted one of nature’s most mischievous little windstorms spinning its way across a dirt road, a construction site, or an open field. These swirling columns of dust and debris are called dust devils, and while they might look like mini-tornadoes, their origin and behavior are quite different—and fascinating.

What Exactly Is a Dust Devil?

A dust devil is a small, rotating column of air that picks up dust, sand, and debris as it spins across the ground. Unlike tornadoes, which are born from powerful thunderstorms and can be dangerous, dust devils form on clear, sunny days—and most are harmless. They typically last only a few seconds to a few minutes and are rarely more than a few dozen feet wide, though some can grow taller than a three-story building.

How Do They Form?

Dust devils form when strong surface heating creates an unstable atmosphere close to the ground. Here’s a step-by-step breakdown:

The ground gets hot—especially in areas with little vegetation, like the arid landscapes around Santa Fe.
The hot surface heats the air directly above it, creating a pocket of warm, low-density air.
This warm air rises quickly through the cooler air above it, creating a small updraft.
If there’s a slight horizontal wind or uneven heating of the ground, this rising air can start to rotate.
As the spinning column pulls in more air, it picks up dust and debris, making the vortex visible.

Santa Fe’s high elevation, strong sun, dry soil, and wide-open spaces make it an ideal place for these whirlwinds to form—especially on spring and summer afternoons when the ground heats up quickly under the clear New Mexico sky.

Dust Devils vs. Tornadoes: What’s the Difference?

It’s easy to confuse a dust devil with a tornado at first glance, but the differences are significant:

Dust devils form from the ground up on sunny days; tornadoes form from the sky down during thunderstorms.
Dust devils are usually harmless, while tornadoes can be devastating.
Tornadoes are part of a much larger storm system, while dust devils are localized phenomena.

Where Are Dust Devils Most Common?

Dust devils are most commonly found in desert and semi-arid regions around the world, including the American Southwest, northern Africa, Australia, and parts of Mars (yes—Mars!). In the U.S., they’re especially common in Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and parts of Texas and California.

Here in Santa Fe, they’re often spotted:

In empty dirt lots or parking areas on the south side of town
On the open stretches of the Turquoise Trail or U.S. 285
Near construction sites where the soil has been disturbed
Even in some backyards, especially if there’s loose dirt and strong sunshine

Santa Fe Weather Reporting History

Sun, 11 May 2025 23:42:40 GMT

Santa Fe’s skies have long held fascination and importance for its residents—from farmers planning their planting season to tourists hoping for sunny strolls down Canyon Road. But where did Santa Fe’s weather records begin, and how have the official observations changed over time?

The History of Weather Reporting in Santa Fe

May 11, 2025

By Jay Faught

1849: Fort Marcy and the U.S. Army Surgeons

The earliest known weather observations in Santa Fe date back to January 1, 1849, when U.S. Army surgeons stationed at Fort Marcy began keeping daily weather diaries. This was part of a broader national effort by the military to document meteorological conditions at remote outposts. These early records included temperature, precipitation, wind, and sky conditions—meticulously logged in pen and ink.

These observations were surprisingly consistent and offer a valuable window into mid-19th century climate conditions in northern New Mexico.

1871–1890: U.S. Signal Service Era

By the 1870s, weather observation shifted from the military to a civilian scientific approach. In 1871, the U.S. Army Signal Service (a precursor to the Weather Bureau) took over the task of weather monitoring in Santa Fe. Observations continued to be made from Fort Marcy and later from a location near the Santa Fe Plaza.

1891–1970s: U.S. Weather Bureau

In 1891, the newly created U.S. Weather Bureau (later to be known as the National Weather Service) assumed responsibility for Santa Fe’s weather data. Stations were relocated several times over the decades, often housed in federal buildings, telegraph offices, and other accessible locations in downtown Santa Fe. Many of these sites were staffed by cooperative observers—citizens who were trained and supplied by the Weather Bureau to log daily weather conditions.

During this time, Santa Fe’s weather station became part of the Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), one of the longest-running weather data collection efforts in the world. The COOP program continued through much of the 20th century, with observations taken from central locations relatively close to the Plaza.

1972–Present: Santa Fe Airport Becomes the Official Site

In April 1972, the official observation site for Santa Fe was moved to the Santa Fe Municipal Airport, located on the city’s south side at an elevation of about 6,349 feet. This site—often referred to as "SANTA FE 2" in data archives—became the new benchmark for daily weather records, including high and low temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall.

While the airport provides consistent and automated data, its location in a lower and warmer part of the city means temperatures can be significantly different from downtown Santa Fe or neighborhoods at higher elevations, such as the Plaza, Hyde Park Road, or even the foothills near Ski Santa Fe.

Impacts of Location Change on Record Keeping

Because of this shift in location and elevation, comparing weather records before and after 1972 can be tricky. The airport site tends to have cooler nights, warmer days, and less precipitation, especially snow, compared to more elevated or mountainous areas around the city. This has led some to question whether recent record highs or lows truly reflect changing climate—or simply reflect the warmer microclimate of the newer observation site. For this reason, the National Weather Service mainly uses Santa Fe weather records from 1972 onward.

Nonetheless, the official daily record highs, lows, and precipitation totals reported by the National Weather Service are based on this airport data. Historical data from earlier sites is still preserved by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and used for long-term climate studies.

Historical Weather Data for This Site

Daily record highs and lows from the Santa Fe airport aren't readily available on the National Weather Service website. So I use the website extremeweatherwatch.com. This site references climate data all the way back to 1849 from the following observation sites.

1849-1971: Observation sites near the Plaza and Canyon Road
1971-2021: Seton Village, Santa Fe County
2021- Current: Santa Fe Regional Airport

In Conclusion

Santa Fe’s weather records are more than just numbers—they’re a chronicle of centuries of human observation, scientific curiosity, and adaptation to a dynamic climate. From soldiers on a dusty mesa in the 1800s to automated sensors at municipal airport today, the legacy of weather watching in Santa Fe continues—and with every sunrise and snowfall, a new chapter is written.

Why All the Rain in May?

Mon, 05 May 2025 00:26:01 GMT

May is often one of our drier months in Santa Fe, so what is causing us to have several days of rain? It's called the Omega Block.

What's Up with the Rainy Forecast?

May 5, 2025

By Jay Faught

What Is an Omega Block?

An Omega Block is a large-scale, stationary weather pattern characterized by a high-pressure system flanked by two low-pressure systems, forming a shape reminiscent of the Greek letter Omega (Ω) in the jet stream. This configuration disrupts the typical west-to-east movement of weather systems, leading to prolonged periods of consistent weather in affected regions.

How Does It Affect Weather?

The Omega Block's structure causes varying weather impacts:

Under the High-Pressure Ridge: Regions experience stable, dry, and often warmer-than-average conditions.

Under the Low-Pressure Troughs: Areas are subjected to unsettled weather, including increased cloudiness, precipitation, and cooler temperatures. Santa Fe will be impacted by the low pressure.

This type of pattern is relatively rare and can persist for several days or even weeks, locking in specific weather conditions over affected regions. For Santa Fe, that means an extended stretch of cooler and wetter weather than we typically see in May.

Broader Impacts Across the U.S.

The Omega Block's influence extends beyond Santa Fe:

Southern U.S.: Experiencing heavy rainfall, with some areas receiving 3-6 inches, leading to potential flooding.

Northeast: Benefiting from 1-3 inches of rain, alleviating drought conditions in some areas.

Northern Plains: Encountering unseasonably warm temperatures due to the high-pressure ridge.

Looking Ahead

As the Omega Block persists, Santa Fe can expect continued cooler and wetter conditions in the short term. However, forecasts suggest a return to more typical spring weather patterns by next week as the jet stream shifts and the Omega Block dissipates.

Active Weather Pattern Ahead

Fri, 02 May 2025 14:54:58 GMT

It won't be raining all the time and there will be a lot of moments this weekend when the weather is very nice. But there is a chance for some decent rain over the next few days. Let's break it down.

Active Weather Pattern Ahead

May 2, 2025

By Jay Faught

Friday: A Surge of Moisture and a Chance for Thunder

Early this morning, a backdoor cold front pushed into central New Mexico, sneaking through mountain passes and leaving behind a pool of cooler air and added moisture. For Santa Fe, this front will set the stage for a stormy afternoon. Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire along the mountains and gradually drift toward the city by late afternoon and early evening. These storms could bring:

Gusty winds

Brief heavy rain

Small hail

Lightning

While not everyone will see a downpour, if you’re planning outdoor activities late today, be ready for sudden changes. By late evening, things should begin to quiet down.

Saturday: A Repeat Performance, With a Twist

Low-level moisture will hang around into Saturday, and the atmosphere won’t get a chance to dry out before the next round of instability arrives. Expect another afternoon and evening of scattered thunderstorms, especially over the high terrain surrounding Santa Fe. The storms will likely move a little faster than Friday’s, which may help reduce the threat of localized flooding, especially near burn scar areas.

Again, Santa Fe sits in a favorable zone for storm development, so keep those umbrellas handy — and maybe hold off on any major hiking plans in the foothills until conditions settle.

Sunday: A More Serious Setup?

Sunday could bring a more organized — and potentially more intense — weather situation across the state. A strong upper-level low is expected to slide through Arizona, setting up a “multi-hazard day” for New Mexico. In Santa Fe and the Sangre de Cristo foothills, there’s a chance for:

Stronger thunderstorms

Gusty outflow winds (30–40 mph)

Small hail

Brief heavy rainfall

Some of these storms could turn severe mainly east of Santa Fe, especially if the atmosphere destabilizes as expected. Areas east of Santa Fe will have the greatest risk, but residents in town should still stay weather-aware. Storms could organize along the east slopes of the mountains and push west into the city.

Into Next Week: Cooler Than Average and Unsettled

Heading into next week, forecasting becomes trickier. There’s some disagreement among the models on how long the upper low will linger and whether a “Rex Block” (a weather pattern that traps systems in place) will develop over the region. What we do know is:

Temperatures will stay cool — generally 5 to 15 degrees below average. That means highs in the 60s around Santa Fe.

Afternoon storm chances may persist , especially on the east side of the state.

High-elevation snow is possible early in the week for peaks above 10,000 feet, though Santa Fe proper will remain too warm for snow.

If the low continues to meander nearby, expect continued storm chances — but the exact timing and location will depend on how the system evolves.

Bottom Line for Santa Fe:

Friday & Saturday: Expect afternoon storms; keep an eye on the sky and take shelter if thunder roars.

Sunday: A chance for stronger storms — possibly severe east of Santa Fe. Stay tuned for updates.

Next Week: Unseasonably cool with continued storm chances, especially in the afternoons.

What's Up With the Radar in Eldorado?

Sun, 06 Apr 2025 16:45:22 GMT

Think your weather app is lying during a snowstorm in Eldorado? Here's why the radar often gets it wrong.

Why Weather Radar Often Misses Rain and Snow in Eldorado

April 6, 2025

By Jay Faught

If you live in Eldorado, Cerrillos, or Lamy in Santa Fe County and rely on weather radar apps to check for incoming rain or snow, you might have noticed something puzzling: sometimes, the radar shows nothing overhead—even when snow is falling or rain is tapping on your window. This common wintertime mystery has a simple but fascinating explanation rooted in geography and the limits of radar technology.

Blocked by the Mountains

The National Weather Service’s main radar site for our area is located near Albuquerque. While it does a great job covering much of central and northern New Mexico, it faces a significant obstacle when it comes to scanning the skies above Eldorado: the Sandia Mountains.

These towering peaks rise more than 10,000 feet and sit squarely between the radar site and Eldorado. Because radar beams travel in straight lines and don’t bend over mountains, the lower portion of the beam is effectively blocked. This means that in areas like Eldorado, especially during storms with low cloud tops, the radar can’t “see” what’s happening at the surface.

Overshooting Low Clouds

To make matters more complicated, radar beams gradually rise as they travel farther from the radar site. By the time a beam reaches Eldorado—about 60 miles away—it’s already scanning thousands of feet above the ground. In winter storms, where clouds and snow may be hugging the surface, the beam often overshoots the precipitation altogether.

The result? Snow might be falling steadily in your backyard, but the radar shows nothing overhead. This can make interpreting weather conditions tricky for those who rely solely on radar images.

Summer Thunderstorms: A Different Story

Fortunately, radar accuracy improves in the summer. That’s because the towering thunderstorms that form during monsoon season can reach altitudes well above 30,000 feet. These higher cloud tops are easily picked up by radar beams, even from a distance and over mountain barriers. So while radar might miss a quiet winter snow in Eldorado, it’s much more reliable when those dramatic summer storms roll in.

The Bottom Line

If you're in Eldorado or even Cerrillos or Lamy and the radar shows clear skies during a winter storm, take it with a grain of salt—especially if the clouds look low and heavy. Geography plays a huge role in what radar can and can’t detect. For the most accurate understanding of current weather, it's best to combine radar with ground observations, webcams, and local forecasts.

High Winds & Blowing Dust Tuesday

Sat, 29 Mar 2025 20:41:02 GMT

A powerful spring storm system is poised to impact northern and central New Mexico on Tuesday, bringing unseasonably warm temperatures, potentially damaging winds, and heightened fire weather concerns — especially across Santa Fe and surrounding areas.

High Winds, Blowing Dust, and Fire Danger on Tuesday

March 30, 2025

By Jay Faught

A strong upper-level jet stream combined with a surface trough east of the southern Rockies will create dangerous wind conditions throughout the region. Santa Fe residents should prepare for west wind gusts ranging from 45 to 60 mph, particularly during the mid-to-late afternoon hours.

Warm, Windy, and Dry — A Triple Threat

Temperatures in Santa Fe are expected to be about 12 degrees above normal, which could push highs into the lower 70s. While the warmth might feel pleasant, it comes with increased risk.

These types of warm, dry, and windy days are a recipe for critical fire weather. Areas along and east of I-25, including much of the Santa Fe area, are expected to experience critical fire danger. Any spark — whether from a downed power line, cigarette, or open flame — could quickly grow into a fast-moving wildfire.

Blowing Dust May Create Travel Hazards

Due to ongoing drought conditions and high winds, blowing dust could significantly reduce visibility, especially in lower-elevation and dust-prone areas. While Santa Fe’s urban core may be spared the worst of the dust, travel on nearby roads — including portions of Interstate 25 and Highway 285 — could become hazardous.

Motorists are urged to be cautious during the afternoon and early evening. Sudden visibility drops and strong crosswinds may make driving difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles.

What You Can Do

Residents in Santa Fe should take a few proactive steps ahead of Tuesday’s storm:

Secure outdoor items like patio furniture, trash bins, and decorations that could be blown away.
Avoid any open burning, including campfires and fire pits.
Delay travel if possible, especially in the afternoon when winds and blowing dust will be strongest.
Monitor local forecasts and alerts for the latest updates.

Summer Monsoon Forecast Looks Promising

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 16:01:44 GMT

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released the seasonal precipitation outlook between July and September and for the first time in a while, New Mexico could see above normal precipitation. However, it may stay pretty dry until then.

Summer Monsoon Forecast Looks Promising

March 21, 2025

By Jay Faught

According to the latest Seasonal Precipitation Outlook released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on March 20, 2025, Santa Fe and much of north-central New Mexico are forecast to have a greater-than-normal chance of above-average precipitation during the upcoming summer months of July through September.

The forecast map shows a green-shaded area over northern New Mexico, indicating a 40-50% probability of above-normal rainfall. This signal suggests a potentially more active monsoon season — welcome news for Santa Fe, which depends on the North American Monsoon to bring critical moisture during the heart of summer.

Summer rainfall in this region is vitally important, replenishing water supplies, supporting vegetation, and reducing wildfire danger. After years of drought cycles and erratic monsoon activity, many in the region are hopeful that a wetter-than-average season might offer some relief.

However, forecasting the Southwest monsoon is notoriously difficult. Unlike winter precipitation systems that are driven by large-scale, more predictable atmospheric patterns, the monsoon is influenced by a complex mix of factors — including ocean temperatures, subtropical ridges, moisture surges from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific, and even soil moisture and land heating. These variables interact in ways that can vary wildly from week to week and year to year.

As a result, while seasonal outlooks can show a tendency toward wetter or drier conditions, they can’t pinpoint timing, intensity, or precise locations of rainfall. One community might see repeated heavy downpours, while another nearby remains dry — a pattern familiar to those who have experienced Santa Fe summers.

What This Means for Santa Fe:

Increased Monsoon Activity Possible: Be prepared for more frequent afternoon thunderstorms, especially in July and August.

Flash Flood Risk : Even with a favorable outlook, much of the rain may come in short, intense bursts, increasing the risk of flash flooding in arroyos and burn scar areas.

Uncertain Impacts: While the outlook is positive, variability within the monsoon means some areas could still end up near or below normal.

Potential Water and Fire Benefits: If rainfall is widespread, it could help boost reservoir levels, reduce fire danger later in the season, and support healthier vegetation growth.

Despite the challenges in making a precise monsoon forecast, the overall trend for Summer 2025 is encouraging. Santa Feans should remain weather-aware, and stay flexible — as is always the case with the monsoon, expect surprises.

Why I Started Santa Fe Weather

Wed, 19 Mar 2025 06:00:00 GMT

Weather has always been more than just a curiosity for me—it’s been a lifelong passion. I started the Santa Fe Weather Facebook Group and website because I wanted to bring that passion to my community.

Weather has always been more than just a curiosity for me—it’s been a lifelong passion. I started the Santa Fe Weather Facebook Group because I wanted to bring that passion to my community, creating a space where people can get clear, accurate, and locally focused forecasts that help them plan their day—and maybe even understand the “why” behind what’s happening in the skies above us.

My love for weather dates back to my childhood in New Mexico, Texas, and Ohio. I moved a lot growing up, attending 15 different schools before graduating high school. Amid all the changes, weather became a constant source of fascination and comfort. I’d watch storms roll in across the desert or get excited about a big snowstorm in Ohio. I remember watching local news and thinking the meteorologist had the coolest job in the world. Little did I know, that dream would one day come true.

I studied Broadcast Journalism and Meteorology at Bowling Green State University in Ohio, combining my love of storytelling with the science of weather. In college, I began forecasting the weather at BG24 News, our campus tv station, and shortly after graduation, I became the lead weather forecaster and reporter at WLIO-TV in Lima, Ohio. It was a fast-paced, rewarding job where I got to inform, educate, and sometimes even reassure the public during severe weather events. It was also where I changed my on-air name from “Jayme” to “Jay” to avoid confusion with another anchor named Jamie—just a little trivia for longtime friends and followers.

While working in Lima, I also was able to fill in on the weekends at WHIO-TV in Dayton and was honored to work alongside some of the lengendary news anchors I grew up watching, like Cheryl McHenry and Jim Baldridge. I couldn't believe it when I found myself sitting next to Cheryl McHenry on my first night and she gave me an on -air welcome. After I moved back to New Mexico and started working in transportation, I filled in on ocassion in 2006 at KRQE-TV in Albuquerque and again was in awe that I was working at the same station as legendary anchors like Dick Kipfing and Dianne Anderson.

Over the years, my career shifted into public service and transportation planning, but my love for weather never went away. After moving to Santa Fe and settling into life here, I noticed a gap—there wasn’t a truly local, community-driven place to talk about our unique and often erradic weather. So, I decided to create one. The local Albuquerque stations too often leave us out - and our weather is very different.

The Santa Fe Weather Facebook Group is a space where I can share forecasts that are easy to understand, rooted in science, and specific to the Santa Fe area. Whether you’re trying to plan a hike, prep for a storm, or just want to geek out about clouds and radar with me—this group is for you.

Thanks to everyone who’s joined so far. Your engagement, questions, and shared photos make this more than just a forecast page—it’s a weather-loving community. If you haven’t joined yet, I’d love to have you.

Join the Santa Fe Weather Facebook Group

Here’s to clear skies (and maybe the occasional snowstorm we can all track together).

Jay Faught

High Wind Alert: What Santa Fe Can Expect on Tuesday

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 12:00:00 GMT

Heads up, Santa Fe! We’re looking at a significant wind event moving in on Tuesday that could make for a rough commute and a noisy afternoon. I wanted to break down what’s coming, what to expect, and how to prepare.

The Setup

A strong Pacific storm system is digging into the Four Corners region, pulling in a tight pressure gradient across Northern New Mexico. That means strong, gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front. These systems are common in spring, but this one looks particularly robust.

Wind Timing & Intensity

When: Mid-morning through late afternoon Tuesday (roughly 9 AM–6 PM)

Peak Gusts: 45–60 mph possible in the Santa Fe area; higher gusts in exposed ridgelines and open areas

Direction: Winds will be out of the southwest, shifting to the west later in the day.

Impacts

Travel: High-profile vehicles on I-25 and Highway 285 could be especially vulnerable to crosswinds

Power outages: Gusts over 50 mph can bring down tree limbs or power lines

Dust: Expect reduced visibility in open areas, especially south of the city

Fire danger: Low humidity and strong winds = critical fire weather. Avoid outdoor burning!

Jay’s Tips

Secure loose items around your yard Monday evening—patio furniture, trash bins, etc.

Drive with caution, especially if you're in a high-profile vehicle.

Avoid unnecessary fire ignition sources. This is not the day to burn anything or flick a cigarette out the window.

Stay weather aware—I'll be posting updates Tuesday morning and throughout the day as conditions develop.

A Quick Note on Santa Fe Winds

We get our fair share of wind here, especially in March and April. Our location near the foothills and elevation of 7,000 feet means even moderate pressure changes can translate into strong surface winds. But when we see forecasted gusts in the 50–60 mph range, that’s worth taking seriously.

A Winter of Extremes: Looking Back at Santa Fe’s 2024-25 Season

Sun, 16 Mar 2025 16:51:45 GMT

As the winds of March whip through the high desert, it’s clear that winter in Santa Fe is winding down—but what a ride it’s been. The winter of 2024–25 was nothing short of a meteorological rollercoaster, packed with early snow, deep freezes, record warmth, and, most recently, some intense spring winds. Let’s take a look back at the season that was.

A Snowy Surprise in November

Winter wasted no time this year. November arrived with a bang—bringing a record 15-inch snowfall to the Santa Fe area. Locals woke up to a winter wonderland far earlier than usual, with many schools delaying or canceling classes and ski season getting an early boost. For snow-lovers, it was a promising start to what seemed like it could be a robust winter.

December: A Mild Turn

But just as quickly as the snow came, it disappeared. December turned dry and unseasonably mild, with sunny days and warmer-than-normal afternoons. The snowpack stalled, with less than an inch reported for the entire month. It felt more like an early spring than the heart of winter, disappointing snow-dependent industries but offering pleasant weather for holiday shoppers and travelers.

January: Cold, But Still Dry

January kept the dry streak going—but not the warmth. The month was marked by a deep chill, including the lowest temperature of the season: a frigid -6°F at the Santa Fe Airport. Residents woke up to icy windshields and bitter mornings. Despite the bone-chilling temps, snow lovers were still left hoping for a good storm that never quite materialized.

February: Record-Breaking Warmth

If January was all about the cold, February flipped the script entirely. It became the warmest February on record for Santa Fe. Afternoon temperatures regularly pushed into the 60s and even a few days in the 70's, with blooming trees and early allergies making an appearance. While it felt great for hikers and cyclists, the lack of precipitation was concerning for water managers and fire officials, as drought conditions began to worsen across the region.

March: The Wind Arrives

March rolled in with a roar—literally. The month kicked off with at least three days of wind gusts topping 50 mph, stirring up dust, downing tree branches, and causing power flickers in parts of town. While not unusual for spring in northern New Mexico, the early and intense wind events have many wondering what the rest of the season will hold.

So, What Does It All Mean?

The winter of 2024–25 in Santa Fe was a clear reminder of how variable and extreme weather can be in the high desert. From record snow to record warmth, from deep freezes to howling spring winds, it’s been a season that kept everyone on their toes.

As we move into spring, concerns about moisture—and fire danger—will take center stage. Unless March and April deliver meaningful rain or snow, the dry conditions could set the stage for an early and active wildfire season.

For now, keep your jackets and windbreakers handy… and maybe start hoping for a wet spring.

33 Dead in Tornado Outbreak

Sun, 16 Mar 2025 15:16:49 GMT

The same storm system that brought 50+mph winds to Santa Fe on Friday, March 14 continued moving east and brought devesatating tornadoes across the Midwest and South.

On March 15, 2025, a catastrophic tornado outbreak ravaged the southern United States, leading to widespread devastation and a tragic loss of life. The outbreak was part of a larger storm system that had already wreaked havoc across the Midwest and Southeast, resulting in at least 35 fatalities.

Meteorological Overview

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had issued a rare "high risk" outlook for severe weather, particularly for parts of Mississippi and Alabama. This designation underscored the high probability of numerous, powerful tornadoes. A "Particularly Dangerous Situation" (PDS) tornado watch was in effect for much of Mississippi and northern Louisiana, highlighting the potential for strong, long-track tornadoes.

Impact and Damage

The storm system unleashed multiple tornadoes across several states, causing significant damage:

Missouri: The state faced the highest toll, with at least 12 deaths reported. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms damaged homes and businesses, leading to widespread power outages.

Mississippi: Six fatalities were reported, with numerous injuries and extensive property damage across multiple counties. Thousands were left without power as the storm system moved through the area.

Arkansas: The state experienced three deaths and numerous injuries, prompting a significant emergency response.

Texas: Four individuals died in weather-related car accidents due to dust storms.

Kansas: A severe dust storm led to eight fatalities and a multi-vehicle collision on the I-70.

In addition to the tragic loss of life, the storms caused substantial property damage, including destroyed homes, overturned vehicles, and downed power lines. Entire communities were left in ruins, and hundreds of thousands faced power outages. This devastating tornado outbreak serves as a sobering reminder of the destructive power of severe weather systems. As communities begin the arduous process of recovery and rebuilding, the importance of preparedness and timely warnings cannot be overstated.

Intense March Winds Blow Through New Mexico

Sat, 15 Mar 2025 16:22:25 GMT

Last week, New Mexico residents experienced an intense stretch of weather, as powerful winds swept across the state, leaving behind a trail of damage, dust, and disrupted plans. From toppled trees to closed highways, the early March wind event was a reminder of how wild spring can be in the Land of Enchantment.

A Week of High Wind Warnings

The National Weather Service issued multiple High Wind Warnings throughout the week, especially for central and eastern New Mexico, where gusts frequently topped 60 to 70 mph. In some areas—particularly along the east slopes of the central mountain chain—winds exceeded 75 mph, strong enough to overturn semi-trucks and rip shingles from rooftops.

Albuquerque saw sustained winds of 30-40 mph, with gusts near 60 mph on multiple days, prompting delays at the airport and causing issues on the roads, especially for high-profile vehicles. Santa Fe and surrounding areas weren’t spared either, as swirling dust reduced visibility. The Santa Fe aiport reported a wind gust of 52 mph early on Friday, March 14.

Dust Storms and Dangerous Driving

One of the more dangerous impacts of the wind was the rise in dust storms, especially in the southern and eastern plains. Communities like Clovis, Roswell, and Hobbs experienced zero-visibility conditions at times, triggering road closures and traffic accidents. Interstate 10 near Lordsburg and I-40 near Tucumcari were both impacted by blowing dust, reminding drivers just how quickly things can turn dangerous when the wind gets involved.

Damage Reports and Power Outages

In addition to transportation woes, the winds downed trees, snapped power lines, and damaged signs and fences across the state. Utility companies reported scattered power outages, particularly in more rural areas where infrastructure is more vulnerable. Emergency services were busy responding to downed lines and calls about flying debris, especially during peak gust periods.

Why So Windy?

Early spring is typically a windy season in New Mexico, but this recent event was fueled by a particularly strong pressure gradient between a low-pressure system moving through the Rockies and high pressure over Texas. This setup created a perfect corridor for high winds to funnel through the state, especially along mountain passes and open plains.

As the jet stream begins to shift northward in March, these kinds of wind events become more common. But the intensity of this week’s winds—even by New Mexico standards—was exceptional.